TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$244,265,276
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,349,697,137
578,254
Markets across
14,382
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,099
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for March 2026, scheduled to be released on April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi presents a tiered bracket structure with 16 binary YES/NO thresholds ranging from -100k to +125k jobs, while Polymarket uses a mutually exclusive range-bracket system with 8 categorical outcomes. Both resolve on the same BLS source (March 2026 Employment Situation Report), but the market structures and resolution mechanics differ fundamentally.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Kalshi, you are betting on whether a specific threshold is exceeded (e.g., 'above 50k'), and multiple markets can resolve YES simultaneously. On Polymarket, you are betting on which single range bracket the actual jobs number falls into, and exactly one market will resolve YES. Ensure your position matches the platform's structure: Kalshi rewards threshold-based predictions, while Polymarket rewards range-bracket predictions.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Distinct stance: Kalshi uses 16 independent binary YES/NO markets, each tied to a single threshold (e.g., 'above 0', 'above 50k', 'above 125k'). Multiple markets can resolve YES if the actual jobs number exceeds multiple thresholds. Resolution rule: 'If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above [threshold] as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of March 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Polymarket uses 8 mutually exclusive range-bracket markets (e.g., 'lose more than 150k', 'lose between 100k and 150k', 'add between 0 and 50k', 'add at least 100k'). Exactly one market resolves YES based on which bracket the actual jobs number falls into. Resolution rule: 'If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.'
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