TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$218,201,443
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,797,601
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,873,651
500,842
Markets across
13,663
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,809
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
How many jobs added in February?
Volume:
$787,659
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks the number of jobs added in the US during February 2026, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Employment Situation Summary. Both Polymarket and Kalshi offer multiple markets with different job-addition thresholds to allow traders to express granular views on the employment outcome.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket uses mutually exclusive job-addition brackets with explicit tie-breaking to the higher bracket, while Kalshi uses cumulative strict-greater-than thresholds. This creates different outcome mappings for the same employment figure.Hero Tip:
Understand that Polymarket markets are mutually exclusive (exactly one resolves YES per outcome), while Kalshi markets are cumulative (multiple can resolve YES). When the reported jobs figure lands exactly on a Polymarket bracket boundary, the tie-break rule pushes resolution to the higher bracket. On Kalshi, the same figure will trigger all lower thresholds to YES and all higher thresholds to NO. Cross-platform arbitrage requires mapping each employment outcome to both platforms' resolution logic independently.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Uses 8 mutually exclusive job-addition brackets: <25k, 25k-50k, 50k-75k, 75k-100k, 100k-125k, 125k-150k, 150k-175k, >=175k. Includes explicit tie-breaking rule: 'If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.' Exactly one bracket resolves YES per outcome.
- Kalshi: Uses 13 cumulative strict-greater-than thresholds: >0, >10k, >20k, >30k, >40k, >50k, >60k, >70k, >80k, >90k, >100k, >125k, >-25k. All thresholds below the reported figure resolve YES; all thresholds at or above resolve NO. No explicit tie-breaking rule provided.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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