TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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How many jobs added in February?
polymarket
kalshi

How many jobs added in February?

Volume:
$787,659

<25k

 - Polymarket

<25k - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 6, 2026

Closed: Mar 5, 7:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

<25k

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$22,493
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$76,412
N/A
N/A
$58,718
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 70,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$76,140
N/A
N/A
$55,712
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 50,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$64,832
N/A
N/A
$36,373
Settled
No
kalshi

Above -25,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$64,740
N/A
N/A
$60,547
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 100,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$60,564
N/A
N/A
$47,828
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 90,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$57,116
N/A
N/A
$47,183
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 60,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$55,299
N/A
N/A
$23,926
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 30,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$45,382
N/A
N/A
$18,820
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 20,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$41,451
N/A
N/A
$29,368
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 80,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$40,579
N/A
N/A
$31,574
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 40,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$37,767
N/A
N/A
$25,880
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 125,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$37,395
N/A
N/A
$32,443
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 10,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$25,126
N/A
N/A
$22,502
Settled
No
polymarket

75k–100k

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19,484
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

50k–75k

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,935
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

175k+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,463
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

150k–175k

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,355
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25k–50k

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,024
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

125k–150k

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,108
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

100k–125k

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,994
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 21

Description

This event group tracks the number of jobs added in the US during February 2026, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Employment Situation Summary. Both Polymarket and Kalshi offer multiple markets with different job-addition thresholds to allow traders to express granular views on the employment outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket uses mutually exclusive job-addition brackets with explicit tie-breaking to the higher bracket, while Kalshi uses cumulative strict-greater-than thresholds. This creates different outcome mappings for the same employment figure.Hero tip: Understand that Polymarket markets are mutually exclusive (exactly one resolves YES per outcome), while Kalshi markets are cumulative (multiple can resolve YES). When the reported jobs figure lands exactly on a Polymarket bracket boundary, the tie-break rule pushes resolution to the higher bracket. On Kalshi, the same figure will trigger all lower thresholds to YES and all higher thresholds to NO. Cross-platform arbitrage requires mapping each employment outcome to both platforms' resolution logic independently.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Uses 8 mutually exclusive job-addition brackets: <25k, 25k-50k, 50k-75k, 75k-100k, 100k-125k, 125k-150k, 150k-175k, >=175k. Includes explicit tie-breaking rule: 'If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.' Exactly one bracket resolves YES per outcome.
  • Kalshi: Uses 13 cumulative strict-greater-than thresholds: >0, >10k, >20k, >30k, >40k, >50k, >60k, >70k, >80k, >90k, >100k, >125k, >-25k. All thresholds below the reported figure resolve YES; all thresholds at or above resolve NO. No explicit tie-breaking rule provided.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.