TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group predicts the number of seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims filed in the US during the week ending February 14, 2026, as reported by the U.S. Department of Labor's Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report. Both Polymarket and Kalshi are structuring markets around the same underlying data point but using different bracket and threshold approaches.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms resolve to the same underlying settlement value—the seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims figure from the DOL report for the week ending February 14, 2026—and differ only in market structure (Polymarket uses brackets; Kalshi uses threshold contracts).
Primary resolution logic:
U.S. Department of Labor Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report, released Thursday 8:30 ET for the week ending February 14, 2026Core resolution logic:
- Resolution is determined by the seasonally adjusted initial unemployment insurance claims figure published in the DOL Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report for the week ending February 14, 2026
- Polymarket brackets the outcome into ranges: <200k, 200-210k, 210-220k, 220-230k, 230-240k, 240-250k, >=250k
- Kalshi uses binary threshold contracts at 200k, 210k, 215k, 220k, 225k, 230k, 240k, 250k, 260k, and 270k
- The report is typically released on Thursday at 8:30 ET, referencing the previous week's data
- Resolution occurs as soon as the report is released
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Report Delayed Beyond 14 Days: If the DOL does not release the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report within 14 calendar days of February 14, 2026, Polymarket resolves to the lowest bracket (less than 200k). Kalshi's resolution mechanism under this scenario is not explicitly documented.
- Revised Data: Both platforms use the initial release of the DOL report for the week ending February 14, 2026. Subsequent revisions to historical data do not trigger re-resolution.
- Exact Bracket Boundaries: For Polymarket, if claims equal exactly 200k, 210k, 220k, 230k, 240k, or 250k, the claim falls into the lower bracket (e.g., 200k resolves the 200-210k bracket to YES). For Kalshi, a value of exactly 200k resolves all thresholds at or below 200k to YES and all thresholds above 200k to NO.
Timing:
Resolution occurs on the Thursday following the week ending February 14, 2026, at 8:30 ET when the DOL Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report is released. If not released within 14 calendar days of February 14, 2026, Polymarket resolves immediately to the lowest bracket.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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