TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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How many jobless claims during the week ending Feb 14?
polymarket
kalshi

How many jobless claims during the week ending Feb 14?

Volume:
$94,555

At least 200000

 - Kalshi

At least 200000 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Feb 19, 2026

Closed: Feb 19, 9:55 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

At least 200000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,023
N/A
N/A
$2,524
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 220000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,384
N/A
N/A
$6,428
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 210000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,295
N/A
N/A
$14,738
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 215000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,128
N/A
N/A
$14,382
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 240000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,087
N/A
N/A
$10,591
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 230000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,492
N/A
N/A
$6,769
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 225000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,041
N/A
N/A
$4,223
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 270000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$350
N/A
N/A
$346
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 260000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$20
N/A
N/A
$20
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 250000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

200k-210k

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$9,589
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

<200k

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,431
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

220k-230k

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$444
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

210k-220k

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$414
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

240k-250k

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$350
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

230k-240k

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$300
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

250k+

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$208
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
Total markets: 17

Description

This event group predicts the number of seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims filed in the US during the week ending February 14, 2026, as reported by the U.S. Department of Labor's Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report. Both Polymarket and Kalshi are structuring markets around the same underlying data point but using different bracket and threshold approaches.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms resolve to the same underlying settlement value—the seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims figure from the DOL report for the week ending February 14, 2026—and differ only in market structure (Polymarket uses brackets; Kalshi uses threshold contracts).Primary resolution logic: U.S. Department of Labor Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report, released Thursday 8:30 ET for the week ending February 14, 2026

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution is determined by the seasonally adjusted initial unemployment insurance claims figure published in the DOL Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report for the week ending February 14, 2026
  • Polymarket brackets the outcome into ranges: <200k, 200-210k, 210-220k, 220-230k, 230-240k, 240-250k, >=250k
  • Kalshi uses binary threshold contracts at 200k, 210k, 215k, 220k, 225k, 230k, 240k, 250k, 260k, and 270k
  • The report is typically released on Thursday at 8:30 ET, referencing the previous week's data
  • Resolution occurs as soon as the report is released

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Report Delayed Beyond 14 Days: If the DOL does not release the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report within 14 calendar days of February 14, 2026, Polymarket resolves to the lowest bracket (less than 200k). Kalshi's resolution mechanism under this scenario is not explicitly documented.
  • Revised Data: Both platforms use the initial release of the DOL report for the week ending February 14, 2026. Subsequent revisions to historical data do not trigger re-resolution.
  • Exact Bracket Boundaries: For Polymarket, if claims equal exactly 200k, 210k, 220k, 230k, 240k, or 250k, the claim falls into the lower bracket (e.g., 200k resolves the 200-210k bracket to YES). For Kalshi, a value of exactly 200k resolves all thresholds at or below 200k to YES and all thresholds above 200k to NO.
Timing: Resolution occurs on the Thursday following the week ending February 14, 2026, at 8:30 ET when the DOL Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report is released. If not released within 14 calendar days of February 14, 2026, Polymarket resolves immediately to the lowest bracket.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.