TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
> 6 days
- Polymarket
> 6 days - Polymarket
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 1, 2026
Latest in Entertainment
Closed: May 29, 8:00 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks how many days Ant Middleton will need to climb from Everest Base Camp to the summit during his scheduled attempt beginning Monday, May 18, 2026. On Polymarket, the leading outcome—that the climb will take more than 6 days—stands at 96.5%, while the probability of completion between 5 and 6 days is 3.4%. Resolution will be determined by livestream footage of the climb, including his stopwatch if available, or by consensus of credible reporting. Watch for the official timer to begin on May 18, 2026, which will mark the start of Middleton's summit push.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money trader consensus, which often diverges from traditional analyst forecasts and media commentary. While analysts may rely on Ant Middleton's military background and climbing experience, prediction markets incorporate live betting data and crowd wisdom. Market prices tend to update faster than published expert opinions when expedition news breaks. Comparing the market's implied probability to expert predictions can reveal where traders see undervalued or overvalued outcomes based on factors analysts may have overlooked or weighted differently.
On Polymarket, the How long will it take Ant Middleton to summit Everest? event is priced through binary outcome contracts. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The top outcome currently reflects a very low probability, indicating strong market confidence in a particular scenario. Prices move continuously as traders buy and sell shares, with each contract representing a specific timeframe or summit outcome. The current market depth and recent trading activity shape how quickly prices respond to expedition updates, weather reports, and other real-time developments affecting Ant Middleton's climb.
Key catalysts include announcements of expedition start dates, weather forecasts for the climbing season, updates on Ant Middleton's physical preparation and acclimatization progress, and reports from base camp or climbing teams. Successful or failed summit attempts by other climbers on Everest can shift market sentiment about difficulty and timing. Media coverage of his training, sponsorship deals, or logistical changes may also influence trader expectations. Any delays, injuries, or changes to the expedition timeline could trigger sharp price movements as the market reprices the probability of summit success within the original timeframe.
