How high will US gas prices get in 2026?

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts at prices determined by supply and demand. As more traders believe gas prices will rise, the price of contracts predicting higher prices increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the probability that the average US gas price in 2026 will exceed the contract’s strike price. Traders are essentially expressing their beliefs about future gas prices through their buy and sell orders, creating a dynamic and informative price discovery process.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the average US regular gasoline price, as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The EIA’s data is widely recognized as a reliable source for energy statistics, and their reported average price will determine whether contracts predicting higher or lower prices pay out. Traders will be able to see the final resolved price and the resulting payouts after the resolution date.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Geopolitical events, such as conflicts in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ production policies, are major potential catalysts. Unexpected economic growth or a recession could also shift demand and influence prices. Furthermore, changes in government energy policies, such as new regulations on refining or fuel standards, could play a role. Finally, major weather events, like hurricanes disrupting refinery operations, could cause short-term price spikes and affect the overall market sentiment.