TOTAL VOLUME:
$62b
24H VOL:
$247,368,872
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,147,874
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,359,628,193
584,096
Markets across
14,555
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,195
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
How high will unemployment get before 2027?
$
$20
$50
$100
$500
Intro
This market tracks whether the U.S. unemployment rate will exceed 15% at any point during 2026. On Kalshi, the leading outcome—unemployment rising above 15%—stands at 27.2%, while a secondary outcome is priced at 10.0%. Resolution will be determined by the U-3 unemployment rate reported throughout 2026 and confirmed by the resolution date of January 8, 2027. Watch monthly jobless claims data and Federal Reserve communications throughout 2026 for signals about labor market stress.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, the unemployment event is priced as a set of outcome contracts, each representing a specific unemployment range or threshold. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy and sell contracts at prices between 0 and 100 cents, where the price reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. The leading outcome currently trades at probability. Prices adjust dynamically as new labor data, Federal Reserve communications, and economic indicators shift trader expectations about joblessness in 2026.
The market resolves on Jan 8, 2027. Resolution is determined by the actual unemployment rate recorded during the specified period in 2026, measured against the outcome thresholds defined at market creation. Official labor statistics from the Bureau of Labor Statistics serve as the authoritative data source. Traders should monitor monthly employment reports and unemployment announcements throughout 2026 to track how actual conditions align with their positions and market pricing.
Key catalysts include monthly jobs reports, unemployment rate announcements, Federal Reserve policy decisions, and macroeconomic shocks. Recession indicators, wage growth data, and labor force participation trends will influence trader expectations. Geopolitical events, trade policy changes, and corporate earnings guidance can shift hiring sentiment. Inflation readings and interest rate decisions by the Fed directly impact employment forecasts. Election outcomes and fiscal policy changes may also reshape the economic outlook for 2026, causing significant repricing of unemployment probabilities on the market.
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