TOTAL VOLUME:

$124b

24H VOL:

$82,345,145

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,121,338,658

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,285,568,173

364,467

Markets across

33,191

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,073

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
polymarket
predict

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

Total volume:
$339,720
Volume 24h:
$21,391
184%
Liquidity:
$21,124
29%
Open interest:
$97,031N/A

5.0%

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?

61%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 61¢ buys you 164 shares | Odds: 61% Total Payout: $164 | Net Profit: $64 Multiplier: 1.64x | ROI: 64% | APY: 401% 111 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

5.0%

Trade
61%
21%
Yes 61¢No 40¢
1¢
$3,766
$96,073
5%
12%
N/A
3mo 3w
active
predict

5.0%

Trade
N/A
N/A
99.6¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 3w 1d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
61%
Yes 61¢No 40¢
Avg: 50.3¢Max: 99.6¢
polymarket

5.2%

Trade
27%
1%
Yes 27.4¢No 73.7¢
1.1¢
$9,289
$35,425
10%
32%
N/A
3mo 3w
active
predict

5.2%

Trade
N/A
N/A
99.3¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 3w 1d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
27%
Yes 27.4¢No 73.7¢
Avg: 50.2¢Max: 99.3¢
polymarket

5.5%

Trade
14%
10%
Yes 14.1¢No 86.2¢
0.3¢
$2,279
$11,616
30%
88%
N/A
3mo 3w
active
predict

5.5%

Trade
N/A
N/A
99.4¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 3w 1d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
14%
Yes 14.1¢No 86.2¢
Avg: 49.9¢Max: 99.4¢
polymarket

5.7%

Trade
7%
Yes 6.9¢No 93.7¢
0.6¢
$3,775
$4,686
9%
9%
N/A
3mo 3w
active
predict

5.7%

Trade
N/A
N/A
99.4¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 3w 1d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
7%
Yes 6.9¢No 93.7¢
Avg: 50¢Max: 99.4¢
polymarket

6.0%

Trade
3%
1%
Yes 3¢No 97.1¢
0.1¢
$1,905
$7,556
26%
110%
N/A
3mo 3w
active
predict

6.0%

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 3w 1d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
3%
Yes 3¢No 97.1¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
polymarket

4.8%

View
100%
8%
Yes 100¢No 0.1¢
0.1¢
N/A
$75,857
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 3w
Yes
predict

4.8%

View
98%
19%
Yes 98¢No 2¢
38¢
$109
$2,220
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 3w 1d
No
polymarket

4.6%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0.1¢
0.1¢
N/A
$41,896
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 3w
Yes
polymarket

4.5%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0.1¢
0.1¢
N/A
$37,423
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 3w
Yes
polymarket

4.4%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0.1¢
0.1¢
N/A
$20,930
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 3w
Yes
polymarket

4.3%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0.1¢
0.1¢
N/A
$6,037
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 3w
Yes
Total markets: 16

Intro

This market tracks the probability of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reaching 5.0% before 2027, currently estimated at 57.0%. Aggregated from Polymarket and Predict, this event group resolves based on data from the U.S. Department of the Treasury Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates. The second most probable outcome, that the yield will hit 5.2% before 2027, is priced at 26.9%. Traders should watch the Treasury yield curve data as we approach the resolution window, which begins November 11, 2025, to see if yields are trending towards these thresholds.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All markets use the same yield source and measurement window (Nov 11 2025 - Dec 31 2026) with identical threshold logicPrimary resolution logic: U.S. Department of the Treasury Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates

Core resolution logic:

  • Check daily 10-year Treasury yield values from Nov 11 2025 through Dec 31 2026
  • Market resolves YES if any recorded yield meets or exceeds the listed threshold
  • Market resolves NO if threshold is never reached within the window

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • exact date match: If yield hits threshold on Nov 11 2025 or Dec 31 2026, it counts as a YES resolution
  • multiple thresholds: Markets resolve independently - hitting 4.3% does not automatically resolve higher threshold markets
Timing: Resolution occurs after Dec 31 2026 using final published yield curve dataOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

Predict

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the 10-year Treasury yield market aggregates betting data across multiple prediction platforms, showing real-time probabilities and trading volume. It tracks how likely markets think yields will reach certain levels before Jan 1, 2027. You can see total volume at $339,720 and recent 24-hour volume at $11,066, offering a snapshot of market interest and consensus. This view lets users compare odds and liquidity across venues quickly.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Traders will watch official data releases and market reactions to determine whether the threshold is met, settling this market based on observable economic results rather than predictions alone.

Several key events could shift probabilities in this market before Jan 1, 2027. Central bank announcements, especially from the Fed, will heavily influence expectations. Strong or weak U.S. economic data releases — including inflation, employment figures, and GDP growth — may push yields higher or lower. Geopolitical tensions and global market movements also often affect Treasury prices, as investors seek safety. Any sudden policy changes or surprise developments could rapidly alter the odds.