TOTAL VOLUME:

$149.7b

24H VOL:

$109,714,070

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,820,087,997

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,739,090,488

444,140

Markets across

34,296

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,700

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
predict
polymarket

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

Total volume:
$1,110,153
Volume 24h:
$85,937
329%
Liquidity:
$168,340
7%
Open interest:
$127,519N/A

5.3%

 - Polymarket

5.3% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027?

45%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 49¢ buys you 204 shares | Odds: 45% Total Payout: $204 | Net Profit: $104 Multiplier: 2.04x | ROI: 104% High Projected APY: 4,772% Low liquidity 66 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

5.3%

Trade
45%
5%
Yes 49¢No 59¢
8¢
$289
$784
109%
N/A
N/A
2mo 6d
active
polymarket

5.4%

Trade
22%
1%
Yes 24¢No 80¢
4¢
$10,274
$85,039
1%
22%
N/A
2mo 6d
active
predict

5.5%

Trade
50%
Yes 99.1¢No 99.5¢
98.6¢
$30,051
$1
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 6d
active
polymarket

5.5%

Trade
13%
1%
Yes 14¢No 87.7¢
1.7¢
$12,955
$226,008
0.55%
9%
N/A
2mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
13.2%
Yes 56.6¢No 93.6¢
Avg: 50.1¢Max: 98.6¢
predict

5.7%

Trade
100%
50%
Yes 99.7¢No 0.3¢
—
$37,912
$1
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 6d
active
polymarket

5.7%

Trade
4%
2%
Yes 5.7¢No 98.6¢
4.3¢
$15,332
$126,991
2%
21%
N/A
2mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
3.6%
Yes 52.7¢No 49.5¢
Avg: 4.3¢Max: 4.3¢
predict

6.0%

Trade
100%
3%
Yes 99.6¢No 0.4¢
—
$37,925
$15
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 6d
active
polymarket

6.0%

Trade
2%
1%
Yes 2.3¢No 98¢
0.3¢
$23,495
$118,157
1%
18%
N/A
2mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
2.2%
Yes 50.9¢No 49.2¢
Avg: 0.3¢Max: 0.3¢
polymarket

5.2%

View
100%
11%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$165,792
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 6d
Yes
predict

5.2%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 6d
Yes
polymarket

5.0%

View
100%
5%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$138,958
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
Yes
polymarket

4.8%

View
100%
8%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$75,857
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
Yes
polymarket

4.6%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$41,896
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
Yes
polymarket

5.3%

View
100%
14%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$39,043
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 6d
Yes
polymarket

4.5%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$37,423
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
Yes
polymarket

5.1%

View
100%
30%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$25,001
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
Yes
polymarket

4.4%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$20,930
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
Yes
polymarket

4.3%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6,037
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
Yes
predict

4.8%

View
100%
19%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$109
$2,220
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 6d
Yes
predict

5.0%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 6d
Yes
Total markets: 20

Intro

This market tracks the probability of the 10-year Treasury yield reaching 5.7% before 2027. Currently, the aggregated consensus across Predict and Polymarket gives a 99.7% probability to this outcome. This prediction is based on daily Treasury yield data published by the Department of the Treasury - Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates. Resolution will occur if the yield reaches or exceeds this level between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, so traders should watch the Treasury yield data released throughout that window.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms utilize the same resolution source (US Treasury Daily Yield Curve) and timeframe, differing only in the specific yield threshold being tested.Primary resolution logic: Department of the Treasury - Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates (https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025)

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution is based on whether the 10-year Treasury yield reaches or exceeds a specified level.
  • The relevant timeframe for resolution is between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026.
  • The source of truth is the '10 Yr' column from the Department of the Treasury's Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Data Availability: If data is not available for all days within the specified period, the market will resolve based on the available data within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of the period. If no data is available within that timeframe, resolution may be delayed or based on the best available information.
  • Exact Match: The market resolves to 'Yes' if the yield *equals* the target percentage, not just exceeds it.
Timing: Resolution will occur as soon as the 10-year Treasury yield reaches or exceeds the specified level, or once data is available for all days in the specified period (November 11, 2025 - December 31, 2026). A maximum of 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of the period will be allowed for data collection before resolution based on available data.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

Predict

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Predict, this market tracks predictions on how high the 10-year Treasury yield will climb before Jan 1, 2027. The dashboard aggregates trading activity from both platforms, providing a consensus view of expectations. Currently, the combined volume across both venues is $1,110,153, with $6,803 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows traders to see where the crowd believes the yield is headed, and to compare the probabilities offered on Polymarket versus Predict. The 10-year Treasury yield market reflects broader economic sentiment and forecasts for inflation and interest rates.

Prediction market prices often offer a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently publish point estimates and ranges, this market represents a probability-weighted view of all possible outcomes. This can lead to differences, as prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of many traders, potentially incorporating information not readily available to individual analysts. The current implied probabilities in this market may align with, or diverge from, consensus analyst expectations regarding the future path of the 10-year Treasury yield, providing a valuable point of comparison for those following economic indicators.

Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price discrepancies between Polymarket and Predict in the 10-year Treasury yield market can arise due to several factors. Different user bases on each platform may hold varying beliefs about the future direction of interest rates, influencing demand for different outcomes. Trading volume also plays a role; higher volume on one platform can lead to more efficient price discovery. Furthermore, the specific market structures and fee schedules of Polymarket and Predict can create slight price variations. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027? at 45.0%, while Predict leans toward Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027? at 99.7%.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the highest 10-year Treasury yield reached before that date is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on publicly available data from a trusted financial source, ensuring transparency and accuracy. Traders will be able to see the final yield level that determines the outcome and how it corresponds to the different possibilities offered in this market. The resolution process is designed to be objective and based on widely accepted financial benchmarks.

Several key economic signals and events could significantly impact this market. Inflation data releases, Federal Reserve policy announcements (including interest rate decisions and forward guidance), and unexpected shifts in economic growth expectations are all potential catalysts. Geopolitical events and changes in global risk sentiment could also influence Treasury yields. Stronger-than-expected economic data might push yields higher, while signs of a weakening economy could lead to a decline. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding price movements in this market leading up to Jan 1, 2027.