TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 6, 9:39 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks the run differential between Houston and Washington during their game on July 6, 2026, measuring which team wins by specific margins.
The market resolves based on the final run differential in the Houston vs Washington game originally scheduled for Jul 6, 2026 at 6:45 PM EDT. If Washington wins by more than 3.5 runs, the Washington +3.5 strike resolves to Yes. If Washington wins by more than 2.5 runs, the Washington +2.5 strike resolves to Yes. If Washington wins by more than 1.5 runs, the Washington +1.5 strike resolves to Yes. If Houston wins by more than 1.5 runs, the Houston -1.5 strike resolves to Yes. If Houston wins by more than 2.5 runs, the Houston -2.5 strike resolves to Yes. If Houston wins by more than 3.5 runs, the Houston -3.5 strike resolves to Yes.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they serve different purposes and attract different participant bases. Sportsbooks set spreads to balance action and manage risk; prediction markets reflect the collective belief of traders wagering real money on outcomes. This market may show tighter or wider spreads than traditional sportsbooks, and the gap can widen or narrow as new information emerges. Comparing the two can reveal where informed traders see value relative to the betting public.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders submit bids and asks for contracts representing different spread outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each contract reflects the probability that outcome will occur, ranging from near zero to near one hundred. As new trades execute, prices update in real time, and the spread between buy and sell orders narrows or widens based on liquidity and conviction among participants.
This market resolves around Jul 7, 2026, once the Houston versus Washington game concludes and the final score is official. The outcome will be verified against credible public sources to confirm the actual point spread. All contracts will then settle based on whether the final margin matches the predicted spread, and traders' positions will be paid out accordingly.
Key catalysts include injury announcements to star players, coaching changes, weather forecasts on game day, and recent team performance trends. Line movements from major sportsbooks often precede shifts here, as sharp bettors arbitrage between venues. Breaking news about team morale, playoff implications, or unexpected roster moves can also trigger rapid repricing. As game time approaches, late-breaking information and final injury reports typically drive the most volatile swings in this market.