TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 4:25 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets evaluates individual player and team defensive performances in a specific football game, focusing on whether certain athletes achieve predetermined fantasy point thresholds using a standardized scoring system.
All markets resolve based on fantasy points accumulated by specified players or team defenses during the full game (including overtime) between Houston and Indianapolis on September 27, 2026. Fantasy points are calculated using Sleeper’s default full-PPR scoring system, which awards points for various statistical categories including passing, rushing, receiving, kicking, and defensive/special teams contributions. Each market has a unique threshold; if the specified player or defense exceeds their respective threshold, the market resolves to Yes, otherwise No. Players who do not participate or lack a recorded fantasy value are considered to have scored zero points. The official fantasy point totals from Sleeper at the time of game expiration are used for resolution, with no post-expiration adjustments or rounding applied. The scoring system details specific point values for categories such as passing yards (0.04 points per yard, plus 1 point per 25 yards), touchdowns, interceptions, receptions, field goals of varying distances, defensive touchdowns, sacks, interceptions, and points allowed by defenses.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for a profit margin, while this market allows traders to express their own beliefs about the outcome. If a significant number of people believe a particular outcome is more likely than a sportsbook suggests, the price in this market will move accordingly. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information becomes available and public sentiment shifts.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the total fantasy points scored. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that specific outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective expectation. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movement is driven by supply and demand; if more people want to buy contracts for a specific outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to provide a real-time assessment of the likely outcome.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final total fantasy points scored by players from both the Houston and Indianapolis teams will be used to determine the winning contract. The resolution will be based on official fantasy scoring rules and data from a recognized fantasy sports provider. The outcome will be determined by the total fantasy points scored.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Houston or Indianapolis teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in player matchups or weather forecasts could also impact expectations. Unexpected developments in team strategy or coaching decisions might also shift the market. Furthermore, general public sentiment and analysis from sports commentators can all contribute to price fluctuations in this market before Sep 27, 2026.