TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 26, 9:19 PM EST
Kalshi
This baseball spread market tracks the margin of victory between Houston and Detroit on June 26, 2026. Bettors can wager on whether one team wins by a specific run differential threshold.
The Houston vs Detroit game resolves based on the final margin of victory. Detroit winning by more than 3.5, 2.5, or 1.5 runs each constitute separate Yes resolutions, as do Houston winning by more than 1.5, 2.5, or 3.5 runs. The outcome is determined by the final score differential at the conclusion of the professional baseball game originally scheduled for June 26, 2026 at 6:40 PM EDT.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and manage risk, while prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs through continuous price discovery. This market may show tighter or wider spreads than traditional sportsbooks, and the direction of divergence can signal where informed traders see value. Comparing the two can reveal whether consensus leans toward a closer or more lopsided contest.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where buyers and sellers submit bids and asks for contracts tied to the spread outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders profit or lose based on whether the final margin matches their position, and prices adjust in real time as new orders flow in. The continuous auction format ensures that prices reflect the most recent information and trader conviction available at any moment.
This market resolves around Jun 27, 2026, once the game concludes and the final margin is verifiable from credible public reporting. The outcome is determined by the official point differential between Houston and Detroit at the end of regulation. Traders holding contracts aligned with the actual spread profit at settlement, while those on the wrong side of the line incur losses. Resolution is automatic once the result is confirmed.
Key catalysts include injury reports, lineup changes, and recent team performance trends leading up to tipoff. Betting action from sharp money or public sentiment shifts can also drive prices higher or lower. Breaking news about player availability, coaching decisions, or head-to-head matchup analysis often triggers repricing as traders reassess the likely margin. Weather conditions, travel fatigue, and back-to-back game schedules may also influence how this market evolves closer to game time.