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Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals
kalshi
polymarket
predict

Who will win Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals?

Volume:
$2,098,554

O/U 9.5

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 9, 2026

Closed: Jul 8, 6:45 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

O/U 9.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$382,002
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 9.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$182,881
N/A
N/A
$96,133
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 8.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$64,543
N/A
N/A
$48,584
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 8.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$332
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 7.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$35,449
N/A
N/A
$25,373
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 7.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$639
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 5.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$15,547
N/A
N/A
$10,355
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 6.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$15,103
N/A
N/A
$10,880
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -5.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$9,798
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -1.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$9,076
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 3.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,610
N/A
N/A
$6,563
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 4.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,250
N/A
N/A
$3,820
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 2.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,033
N/A
N/A
$1,782
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$459
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$289
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.9¢
N/A
$256
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$49
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -2.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.8¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$567,724
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals

View
N/A
N/A
—
$383
$4,963
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Over 10.5 runs scored

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$284,532
N/A
N/A
$139,414
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 10.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$246,176
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 39

Intro

This market tracks the point spread outcome of an MLB game between the Houston Astros and Washington Nationals scheduled for July 8, 2026 at 6:45 PM ET. The aggregated consensus across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Predict shows the Washington Nationals at -5.5 spread with 100.0% probability. Resolution will be determined by official MLB final statistics as published on MLB.com, or by consensus of credible reporting sources if official data is unavailable within 24 hours of game conclusion. Watch for the final official score on July 8, 2026 to determine whether the Nationals cover the 5.5-point spread.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All three platforms (Polymarket, Predict, Kalshi) apply identical resolution logic: official MLB statistics, 24-hour fallback to credible consensus, 50-50 on cancellation/no makeup, and consistent tie-handling across market types.Primary resolution logic: Official MLB final statistics as published on MLB.com; if unavailable within 24 hours of game conclusion, consensus of credible reporting sources.

Core resolution logic:

  • Moneyline (Game Winner): Resolves to Houston Astros if Astros win; Washington Nationals if Nationals win; 50-50 if game canceled with no makeup or ends in tie.
  • Full-Game Spreads: Washington Nationals (-1.5) resolves to Nationals if they win by 2+ runs, otherwise Houston Astros; ties resolve to Houston Astros. Houston Astros (-1.5) resolves to Astros if they win by 2+ runs, otherwise Washington Nationals; ties resolve to Washington Nationals.
  • Full-Game Totals (O/U 9.5): Over resolves if combined runs >= 10; Under if combined runs < 10.
  • First Inning Run Scoring: Yes if at least one run scored by either team in the 1st inning; No if zero runs in 1st inning.
  • Five-Inning Spreads: Same logic as full-game spreads but evaluated at conclusion of 5th inning only.
  • Five-Inning Totals (O/U 2.5 through 6.5): Over resolves if combined runs through 5 innings meet or exceed threshold + 1; Under if below threshold + 1.
  • Extra Innings: Yes if play begins in any inning after regulation (10th inning or later in standard 9-inning game); No if game completes in regulation; 50-50 if game ends in tie before extra innings or is canceled.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Game Postponement: All markets remain open until the game is completed. Check home team (Washington Nationals) schedule on MLB.com for makeup game listing.
  • Game Cancellation with No Makeup: All markets resolve 50-50 if game is canceled entirely with no makeup game scheduled.
  • Tie Game (Regulation): Moneyline and totals resolve 50-50. Spreads resolve to the non-favored team (e.g., Houston Astros for Nationals -1.5 spread). Extra innings market resolves 50-50 if game ends in tie before extra innings are played.
  • Official Statistics Delay: If MLB.com does not publish final statistics within 24 hours of game conclusion, resolution uses consensus of credible reporting (e.g., ESPN, MLB.com news, official team sources).
  • Five-Inning Markets on Postponement: Five-inning markets remain open until the 5th inning is completed. If game is canceled before 5th inning completion, market resolves 50-50.
Timing: Moneyline, spreads, totals, and extra innings markets resolve after the game concludes (typically within 2-3 hours of final out). First-inning markets resolve after the 1st inning concludes. Five-inning markets resolve after the 5th inning concludes. All markets have a 24-hour window for official statistics publication before fallback to credible consensus.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Houston Astros and Washington Nationals, scheduled for July 8 at 6:45PM ET: This market will resolve to "Houston Astros" if the Houston Astros win the game. This market will resolve to "Washington Nationals" if the Washington Nationals win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the total combined runs scored by Houston and Washington in the professional baseball game originally scheduled for July 8, 2026 at 6:45 PM EDT. Each primary rule establishes a specific run threshold; the market resolves to Yes if the combined total exceeds that threshold. Thresholds range from 2.5 runs to 12.5 runs, allowing bettors to express granular predictions about overall game scoring levels.

Predict

In the upcoming MLB game between the Houston Astros and Washington Nationals, scheduled for July 8 at 6:45PM ET: This market will resolve to "Houston Astros" if the Houston Astros win the game. This market will resolve to "Washington Nationals" if the Washington Nationals win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks price events differently because they operate under distinct incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and extract a margin, while prediction markets rely on trader consensus to discover prices. This market's odds reflect what thousands of individual traders believe will happen, often incorporating real-time information faster than sportsbooks adjust their lines. Comparing this market's implied probabilities to major sportsbook spreads can reveal value opportunities, especially if one venue has slower information flow or different risk appetite than the other.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, which naturally produces price variation. Polymarket may have deeper liquidity in certain outcomes, allowing larger positions to move prices less, while Kalshi might see concentrated trading from a smaller group with different conviction levels. Platform-specific rules, withdrawal policies, and user bases also influence how quickly new information gets priced in. Monitoring both venues helps you identify temporary mispricings and understand where consensus is strongest across the prediction market ecosystem.

Key catalysts include roster changes, injury announcements, recent team performance trends, and betting line movement at major sportsbooks. Weather conditions on game day, starting pitcher matchups, and historical head-to-head records can all shift trader sentiment. Breaking news about player availability or team strategy often triggers rapid repricing across both platforms. Monitor sports news outlets and official team announcements closely, as this market will react swiftly to any developments that alter the perceived likelihood of the outcome.