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Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals - First 5 Innings Winner
kalshi
polymarket

Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals - First 5 Innings Winner

Volume:
$23,200

Houston wins first 5 innings

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 14, 2026

Closed: Jun 12, 10:10 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Houston wins first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$15,535
N/A
N/A
$12,936
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Houston Astros

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Kansas City wins first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,371
N/A
N/A
$3,997
Settled
No
polymarket

Kansas City Royals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,294
N/A
N/A
$3,112
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group covers the outcome of the first 5 innings in the MLB game between the Houston Astros and Kansas City Royals. Markets resolve based on which team is ahead (or if tied) at the conclusion of the 5th inning, regardless of the final game result.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Scheduled game date and time differ between platforms (Kalshi: Jun 12 8:10 PM EDT vs Polymarket: Jun 13 7:10 PM ET), and Kalshi's resolution logic structure is ambiguous (all outcomes listed as Yes).Hero tip: Before trading, confirm the official MLB.com schedule for the Astros-Royals game. If the game is rescheduled or postponed, both platforms have provisions to remain open until the 5th inning is completed. Polymarket explicitly handles ties and cancellations (50-50 split); Kalshi's handling of these scenarios is unclear from the provided rules.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: References Jun 12, 2026 at 8:10 PM EDT. Lists three conditions (Kansas City wins, Houston wins, tie) all resolving to Yes. This structure is logically inconsistent for a single binary market and suggests either incomplete rule documentation or a multi-outcome market design.
  • Polymarket: References June 13 at 7:10 PM ET. Clearly delineates three separate outcomes: Houston Astros winning, Kansas City Royals winning, and Draw. Includes explicit handling for postponements (market remains open) and cancellations (50-50 split). Uses official MLB statistics as primary source, with credible reporting as fallback within 24 hours.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Houston Astros and Kansas City Royals, scheduled for June 13 at 7:10 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Houston Astros" if the Houston Astros is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "Kansas City Royals" if the Kansas City Royals is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

The Houston vs Kansas City game scheduled for June 12, 2026 at 8:10 PM EDT will be evaluated based on the score at the end of the fifth inning. The Houston outcome resolves to Yes if Houston has more runs than Kansas City after five innings. The Kansas City outcome resolves to Yes if Kansas City has more runs than Houston after five innings. The Tie outcome resolves to Yes if both teams have scored the same number of runs after five innings; if a tie occurs, the Tie strike resolves to Yes and all team strikes resolve to No. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and resolves after the rescheduled game concludes within two days.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like those tracked here operate on a fundamentally different mechanism than traditional sportsbooks. Rather than a bookmaker setting fixed lines, traders themselves determine prices through continuous buying and selling, which often reflects sharper, crowd-sourced probability estimates. Sportsbooks typically build in margins and may adjust lines based on liability management, while prediction markets aggregate dispersed information from many participants. For early-inning outcomes, prediction market pricing can sometimes diverge meaningfully from sportsbook spreads, particularly when public betting interest concentrates elsewhere. Comparing both sources helps identify where consensus differs most.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and risk tolerances, which naturally produces price variation. Kalshi and Polymarket may also structure outcome categories slightly differently—for instance, one platform might isolate a tie scenario while another bundles it differently—leading to divergent implied probabilities on the same underlying event. Trading volume, fee structures, and user interface design also influence how quickly prices adjust to new information. These differences create arbitrage opportunities for sharp traders and highlight why monitoring multiple venues provides a more complete market picture.

Injury reports, lineup announcements, and starting pitcher confirmations typically drive significant repricing in the days leading up to game time. Weather conditions, travel delays, or last-minute roster changes can shift trader sentiment on early-inning performance. Once play begins, each run scored, base hit, and defensive play in the first five innings will trigger real-time position adjustments. Momentum swings—such as an early home run or pitching change—often accelerate market movement. Traders also monitor historical matchups and recent form to adjust their edge estimates as new information emerges.