TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

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$103,397,351

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2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

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30,097

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MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

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61%

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Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals
kalshi
polymarket
predict

Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals

Volume:
$1,608,408

Kansas City

 - Kalshi

Kansas City - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 14, 2026

Closed: Jun 14, 4:34 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Kansas City

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$317,389
N/A
N/A
$239,162
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -1.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$7,064
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -3.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$5,799
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -2.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$5,311
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

NRFI

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$297
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$115
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$102
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$11
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Houston

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$911,767
N/A
N/A
$701,151
Settled
No
polymarket

Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$289,200
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals

View
N/A
N/A
—
$996
$30,468
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 7.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,470
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 8.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,939
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 5.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,227
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 6.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,898
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 10.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,354
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 9.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$826
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -1.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$696
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 11.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$276
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -2.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$85
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -4.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$59
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -3.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$40
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Extra Innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 29

Intro

This market tracks whether a run will be scored during the first inning of the Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals matchup scheduled for June 14, 2026. Aggregated across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Predict, the consensus probability stands at 100.0% for a run being scored in the first inning. Resolution will be determined by official MLB records. Watch for the game's first-inning conclusion on June 14, 2026 at approximately 2:40 PM EDT to see how this outcome resolves.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's resolution structure contains a logical contradiction: both Houston winning and Kansas City winning are specified to resolve to Yes, which is impossible in a binary outcome game. This makes the Kalshi market fundamentally unresolvable as written.Hero tip: Do not trade on Kalshi's version until the platform clarifies whether this is a moneyline (Yes = either team wins, No = game doesn't happen) or if the resolution criteria are incorrectly documented. For Predict and Polymarket match winner markets, resolution is clear and consistent. Polymarket's first-inning run market is separate and uses standard Yes/No logic.

Critical divergence points:

  • Predict: Binary winner selection: resolves to either Houston Astros or Kansas City Royals based on final game outcome. Postponement keeps market open; cancellation without makeup or tie = 50-50 split. Primary source: official MLB final statistics within 24 hours, or credible reporting consensus if delayed.
  • Kalshi: Logically contradictory structure: states 'If Houston wins...resolves to Yes' AND 'If Kansas City wins...resolves to Yes'. No specification for No resolution or tie/cancellation handling. This creates an unresolvable market as written.
  • Polymarket (Match Winner): Binary winner selection: identical to Predict. Resolves to Houston Astros or Kansas City Royals. Postponement keeps market open; cancellation without makeup or tie = 50-50 split. Primary source: official MLB statistics within 24 hours, or credible reporting consensus.
  • Polymarket (First Inning Runs): Separate market: resolves to Yes if at least one run scored in 1st inning by either team, No if zero runs. Postponement keeps market open; cancellation without makeup = 50-50 split. Same primary source hierarchy as match winner market.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Houston Astros and Kansas City Royals, scheduled for June 14 at 2:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Houston Astros" if the Houston Astros win the game. This market will resolve to "Kansas City Royals" if the Kansas City Royals win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the final result of the Houston vs Kansas City professional baseball game originally scheduled for June 14, 2026 at 2:10 PM EDT. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game concludes within two days. Should the game be cancelled or rescheduled more than two days away, the market resolves to a fair price in accordance with established rules.

Predict

In the upcoming MLB game between the Houston Astros and Kansas City Royals, scheduled for June 14 at 2:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Houston Astros" if the Houston Astros win the game. This market will resolve to "Kansas City Royals" if the Kansas City Royals win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Frequently asked questions

The Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals dashboard aggregates real-time odds and trading activity across multiple prediction market platforms, including Polymarket and Kalshi. It displays the consensus probability for each team to win, current market prices, and 24-hour trading volume across all connected venues. This cross-platform view lets you see how different markets price the same matchup, identify where consensus is strongest, and track how odds shift as game day approaches. The dashboard updates continuously to reflect new trades and information flow.

Prediction markets and sportsbooks price the Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals matchup using different mechanisms. Sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and extract margin, while prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs through continuous order books. Prediction market odds often reflect sharper, crowd-sourced probability estimates because traders have direct financial incentive to identify mispricing. However, sportsbooks may move faster on breaking news or injury reports. Comparing the two reveals arbitrage opportunities and helps bettors understand where consensus probability diverges from traditional bookmaker lines.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket and Predict may show different odds for the Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals due to variations in liquidity, user base composition, and trading activity timing. Each platform attracts different trader demographics and risk appetites, causing temporary price gaps. Liquidity depth also differs—one platform may have tighter spreads and faster order execution, while the other experiences slower price discovery. Geographic and regulatory factors can influence participation patterns. These differences typically narrow as arbitrageurs exploit gaps, but during low-volume periods or around major news events, meaningful divergence can persist.

Several factors could shift odds for the Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals before game time. Key player injuries or roster changes, especially to star pitchers or hitters, typically trigger sharp moves. Weather conditions at the stadium—wind direction, temperature, and humidity—affect ball carry and scoring. Recent team form, bullpen availability, and head-to-head matchup history also influence trader sentiment. Lineup announcements and starting pitcher confirmations often cause repricing. Breaking news about team morale, trades, or unexpected absences can create sudden volatility. Monitor sports news feeds and team social media for real-time catalysts that may impact market prices.