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406,422

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2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers - First 5 Innings Winner
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win the first 5 innings: Astros or Tigers?

Volume:
$113,054

Tie

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 26, 2026

Closed: Jun 25, 7:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Tie

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$39,898
N/A
N/A
$30,283
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Draw

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Detroit wins first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$50,425
N/A
N/A
$44,881
Settled
No
kalshi

Houston wins first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$22,731
N/A
N/A
$17,849
Settled
No
polymarket

Houston Astros

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Detroit Tigers

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group tracks the outcome of the first 5 innings of the MLB game between the Houston Astros and Detroit Tigers scheduled for June 25, 2026 at 6:40 PM EDT. Markets across platforms are betting on which team will be ahead (or tied) after the completion of the 5th inning.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi market logic is contradictory and unresolvable. All three mutually exclusive outcomes (Houston win, Detroit win, tie) are mapped to Yes, making the market always resolve Yes. Polymarket correctly structures this as a three-way categorical outcome (Houston Astros, Detroit Tigers, Draw).Hero tip: Do not trade the Kalshi market in its current form. The resolution rules guarantee Yes resolution regardless of game outcome, eliminating all predictive value. Use Polymarket as the authoritative source. Request Kalshi clarification on whether they intended a binary market (e.g., game completes vs. postponed/canceled) or if this is a rule error.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Tautological structure: Resolves Yes if Houston wins first 5 innings, Yes if Detroit wins first 5 innings, Yes if they tie. Every possible outcome maps to Yes, making the market logically incoherent and always resolving to Yes.
  • Polymarket: Three-way categorical market: Resolves to Houston Astros if Houston ahead after 5 innings, Detroit Tigers if Detroit ahead after 5 innings, Draw if tied. Mutually exclusive outcomes with proper resolution logic. Includes fallback for postponement (remains open until 5th inning completed) and cancellation (50-50 split).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Houston Astros and Detroit Tigers, scheduled for June 25 at 6:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Houston Astros" if the Houston Astros is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "Detroit Tigers" if the Detroit Tigers is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

The Houston vs Detroit game scheduled for June 25, 2026 at 6:40 PM EDT will be evaluated based on which team has more runs at the end of the fifth inning. The Houston outcome resolves to Yes if Houston has more runs than Detroit after five complete innings. The Detroit outcome resolves to Yes if Detroit has more runs than Houston after five complete innings. The Tie outcome resolves to Yes if both teams have scored an equal number of runs at the end of five innings; if a tie occurs, the Tie strike resolves to Yes and all team strikes resolve to No. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and resolves after the rescheduled game concludes within two days.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket operate on peer-to-peer trading rather than fixed odds set by a sportsbook. Traders buy and sell shares reflecting their belief in each outcome, and the market price emerges from supply and demand. Unlike traditional sportsbooks, which apply margins and adjust lines for liability, prediction markets often reflect pure crowd sentiment with tighter spreads. However, sportsbook odds may incorporate sharper professional action and real-time injury or weather data, while this market's prices depend on retail trader participation and information flow. Both reflect probability estimates but through fundamentally different mechanisms.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and risk tolerances, leading to price variation on the same event. Kalshi's regulatory structure and user base may emphasize certain information signals differently than Polymarket's global audience. Timing lags in order-book updates, varying fee structures, and platform-specific trading incentives can also widen gaps. Additionally, traders may hold different priors about early-inning baseball dynamics or have asymmetric access to lineup and weather data. These differences typically narrow as the event approaches, but they create arbitrage opportunities for observant traders.

Lineup announcements, starting pitcher confirmations, and injury reports can shift trader expectations about early-game momentum and scoring patterns. Weather conditions—wind direction, temperature, and humidity—affect ball carry and pitcher performance in the first five innings. Recent team form, head-to-head records in early-inning play, and bullpen availability also influence pricing. Breaking news about player availability or last-minute roster changes often trigger sharp repricing. As game time approaches, real-time updates on field conditions and pregame developments may accelerate volatility, particularly if either team's offensive or defensive setup changes unexpectedly.