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Vol.
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Resolves Oct 31, 2026
Time left: 16d:09h:17m
Will "Housewife" rank No. 1–2 on Billboard Hot 100?
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Description
The performance of Tate McRae's song "Housewife" on the Billboard Hot 100 chart by the end of October 31, 2026, determines various ranking outcomes. This reflects how a single song's chart position can influence public perception and industry metrics.
Kalshi
The event evaluates the chart position of the song "Housewife" by Tate McRae on the Billboard Hot 100 for the chart dated October 31, 2026. The market resolves to Yes if the song ranks within any of the specified ranges from No. 1 to No. 100. Each rule defines a different ranking range, and the market outcome depends on where the song falls within these ranges. Kalshi clarifies that it is not affiliated with Billboard, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's important to note that analyst forecasts for music chart performance this far in the future are scarce and often unreliable. However, this market provides a real-time assessment of expectations based on collective intelligence. While traditional music industry predictions may focus on factors like radio play and streaming numbers, this market incorporates a wider range of information and potential influences as perceived by traders. Discrepancies between this market and initial analyst expectations could highlight overlooked factors or shifts in the musical landscape.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers set the odds by placing bids and asks. The price reflects the probability of a particular outcome occurring, with higher prices indicating a lower probability and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information and their own assessments of the song's potential, leading to dynamic price fluctuations. The current market prices represent the aggregated beliefs of all participants.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the song's peak position on the Billboard Hot 100 chart is verifiable from credible public reporting. The Billboard Hot 100 chart, published by Billboard magazine, is the industry standard for ranking the most popular songs in the United States. The resolution will be based on the official chart data released by Billboard for the week ending October 31, 2026, reflecting the song’s highest ranking during that period.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. A major shift in Tate McRae's popularity, perhaps driven by a viral social media trend or a prominent placement in a popular film or television show, would likely move the market. Changes in the broader music landscape, such as the emergence of a competing artist or a new genre gaining traction, could also influence trading activity. Unexpected events, like a major tour announcement or a collaboration with another artist, could also cause significant price movements in this market.
