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Home Run Derby: Longest Home Run
kalshi

Who will hit the longest home run in the 2026 Home Run Derby?

Volume:
$1,179,817

Junior Caminero

 - Kalshi

Junior Caminero - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 14, 2026

Closed: Jul 13, 10:50 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Junior Caminero

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$206,209
N/A
N/A
$120,088
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Willson Contreras

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$195,214
N/A
N/A
$116,015
Settled
No
kalshi

Kyle Schwarber

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$179,797
N/A
N/A
$118,604
Settled
No
kalshi

Jac Caglianone

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$152,145
N/A
N/A
$131,774
Settled
No
kalshi

Munetaka Murakami

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$134,303
N/A
N/A
$108,687
Settled
No
kalshi

Jordan Walker

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$119,864
N/A
N/A
$96,341
Settled
No
kalshi

Ben Rice

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$99,518
N/A
N/A
$85,758
Settled
No
kalshi

Bryce Harper

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$92,766
N/A
N/A
$77,593
Settled
No
Total markets: 8

Intro

This market tracks whether Junior Caminero will hit the longest home run by distance at the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby. On Kalshi, Junior Caminero is priced at 97.0%, with Jordan Walker at 3.0%. Resolution will be determined by official MLB records of the longest home run distance recorded during the competition. Watch for the Home Run Derby event scheduled for July 14, 2026, which will determine the final outcome.

Kalshi

Each player's market resolves to Yes if that player records the longest home run by distance at the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby, as measured by the Governing League. If a player does not participate in the event, their market resolves to No. In the event of a tie for longest home run by distance, dead-heat rules apply and each tied player's market resolves to 1/N, where N is the total number of players tied for the longest distance.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the longest home run market dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for this prediction market centered on the Home Run Derby event. The display shows current pricing, historical price movements, and 24-hour volume of $1,130,778 to help traders monitor sentiment and liquidity. This market lets participants forecast which competitor will hit the longest home run during the competition, with odds updating as new trades execute and event details emerge.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they reflect real-money stakes and crowd wisdom rather than individual expert opinion. Traders in this market continuously update prices based on breaking news, player performance data, and betting patterns, creating a dynamic consensus that can shift rapidly. Comparing this market's odds to published analyst predictions reveals where the crowd sees value or risk that experts may have overlooked, making both sources useful for forming a complete view.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing different outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each share reflects the implied probability of that outcome, with prices ranging from near zero to near 100 cents. As traders submit bids and asks, the market price adjusts in real time, allowing participants to enter or exit positions at transparent, competitive rates throughout the trading window.

This market resolves around Jul 14, 2026, once the Home Run Derby event concludes and the longest home run distance is verified. The outcome is confirmed against credible public sources reporting the final results. Until that point, traders can adjust positions as new information emerges, making the resolution date a key deadline for all open positions in this market.

Key signals include official announcements of participating competitors, weather forecasts affecting ball carry distance, and any equipment or rule changes announced before the event. Real-time performance during qualifying rounds or practice sessions can shift odds significantly. Injury updates, lineup changes, or media coverage highlighting particular competitors' recent form may also trigger price movements. Close to the event date, final weather conditions and venue-specific factors become increasingly important catalysts for trading activity.