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Home Run Derby: Finals Matchup
kalshi

Who will win the Home Run Derby finals?

Volume:
$3,363,043

Kyle Schwarber and Jordan Walker

 - Kalshi

Kyle Schwarber and Jordan Walker - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 14, 2026

Closed: Jul 13, 10:13 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Kyle Schwarber and Jordan Walker

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$168,040
N/A
N/A
$115,072
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Kyle Schwarber and Junior Caminero

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$649,762
N/A
N/A
$504,663
Settled
No
kalshi

Kyle Schwarber and Willson Contreras

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$402,828
N/A
N/A
$248,607
Settled
No
kalshi

Munetaka Murakami and Kyle Schwarber

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$273,763
N/A
N/A
$255,012
Settled
No
kalshi

Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$236,761
N/A
N/A
$221,415
Settled
No
kalshi

Junior Caminero and Jordan Walker

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$230,244
N/A
N/A
$180,048
Settled
No
kalshi

Willson Contreras and Jordan Walker

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$158,260
N/A
N/A
$103,760
Settled
No
kalshi

Munetaka Murakami and Junior Caminero

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$148,683
N/A
N/A
$137,806
Settled
No
kalshi

Kyle Schwarber and Jac Caglianone

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$108,204
N/A
N/A
$100,507
Settled
No
kalshi

Junior Caminero and Willson Contreras

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$102,784
N/A
N/A
$68,318
Settled
No
kalshi

Kyle Schwarber and Ben Rice

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$96,320
N/A
N/A
$89,990
Settled
No
kalshi

Junior Caminero and Ben Rice

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$93,627
N/A
N/A
$90,071
Settled
No
kalshi

Bryce Harper and Junior Caminero

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$92,438
N/A
N/A
$81,657
Settled
No
kalshi

Junior Caminero and Jac Caglianone

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$82,710
N/A
N/A
$73,751
Settled
No
kalshi

Bryce Harper and Willson Contreras

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$53,411
N/A
N/A
$37,320
Settled
No
kalshi

Munetaka Murakami and Jac Caglianone

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$51,866
N/A
N/A
$51,665
Settled
No
kalshi

Munetaka Murakami and Ben Rice

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$45,936
N/A
N/A
$45,072
Settled
No
kalshi

Ben Rice and Willson Contreras

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$45,492
N/A
N/A
$29,010
Settled
No
kalshi

Bryce Harper and Ben Rice

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$44,749
N/A
N/A
$44,426
Settled
No
kalshi

Munetaka Murakami and Willson Contreras

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$44,537
N/A
N/A
$28,115
Settled
No
kalshi

Jac Caglianone and Jordan Walker

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$35,259
N/A
N/A
$30,094
Settled
No
kalshi

Jac Caglianone and Willson Contreras

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$34,731
N/A
N/A
$31,974
Settled
No
kalshi

Bryce Harper and Jordan Walker

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$33,739
N/A
N/A
$29,882
Settled
No
kalshi

Bryce Harper and Jac Caglianone

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$32,656
N/A
N/A
$28,641
Settled
No
kalshi

Munetaka Murakami and Bryce Harper

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$31,822
N/A
N/A
$30,273
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 28

Intro

This market tracks which two players will face off in the championship round of the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby. On Kalshi, the probability that Kyle Schwarber and Jordan Walker will be matched in the finals stands at 54.0%. The market resolves based on the official MLB Home Run Derby results as the finals round concludes on July 14, 2026. Watch the semifinal round outcomes on that date to see which players advance to the championship matchup.

Kalshi

The 2026 Home Run Derby Finals Matchup event encompasses all possible pairings of seven eligible competitors: Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Junior Caminero, Ben Rice, Jac Caglianone, Willson Contreras, and Jordan Walker. Each market resolves to Yes if the corresponding pairing advances to the final round of the 2026 Home Run Derby. For any given pairing to resolve Yes, both players in that pairing must participate in the event and face each other in the finals. If either player in a pairing fails to participate in the 2026 Home Run Derby, or if they do not meet in the final round, that market resolves to No. Only one pairing will ultimately compete in the finals, meaning only one market within this event will resolve to Yes, while all others resolve to No.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the Home Run Derby finals market dashboard displays real-time odds and pricing for the matchup outcome. Traders can monitor the current probability for each finalist, review historical price movements, and track total trading volume of $3,363,043 across all positions. The 24-hour volume of $3,118,899 reflects recent market activity and trader interest. This dashboard gives you a live snapshot of how the prediction community is pricing the finals event, updated continuously as new trades execute.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they reflect real money at stake rather than opinion alone. In this market, traders are pricing outcomes based on player performance data, historical Derby results, and live event dynamics. Analysts may rely on preseason rankings or statistical models that don't adapt as quickly to breaking news or lineup changes. Comparing the odds here to published expert predictions can reveal where the market is more bullish or bearish than the consensus, highlighting potential value or contrarian positioning.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing each finalist's probability of winning the finals matchup. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each share reflects the market's collective belief in that outcome, ranging from near-zero to near-100 cents per share. As new information emerges or trading volume shifts, prices adjust in real time. Your profit or loss depends on the entry price you pay and the final resolution price once the event concludes.

This market resolves around Jul 14, 2026, once the Home Run Derby finals event concludes and the winner is verified. The outcome is determined by which finalist wins the matchup, confirmed against credible public sources covering the event. No further action is required from you after the event ends; the platform will automatically settle all positions based on the verified result. Traders holding shares in the winning finalist receive full payout, while losing positions expire worthless.

Several catalysts can shift odds before the finals. Injury announcements or roster changes involving either finalist will trigger immediate repricing. Recent performance in earlier Derby rounds, batting statistics, or swing mechanics highlighted in sports media can sway trader sentiment. Weather forecasts for the event venue may influence expectations around ball carry distance. Breaking news about player form, motivation, or competing commitments can also move the market. Real-time commentary during the event itself will drive the most dramatic price swings as traders react to live performance.