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Home Run Derby: 500+ Foot HR
kalshi

Home Run Derby: 500+ Foot HR

Volume:
$1,861,160

1+ HRs

 - Kalshi

1+ HRs - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 14, 2026

Closed: Jul 13, 10:44 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

1+ HRs

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$882,210
N/A
N/A
$581,163
Settled
No
kalshi

2+ HRs

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$370,039
N/A
N/A
$249,845
Settled
No
kalshi

3+ HRs

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$204,121
N/A
N/A
$150,214
Settled
No
kalshi

6+ HRs

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$154,014
N/A
N/A
$134,528
Settled
No
kalshi

4+ HRs

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$135,125
N/A
N/A
$96,107
Settled
No
kalshi

5+ HRs

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$115,652
N/A
N/A
$90,143
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Intro

This market tracks whether players competing in the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby will hit exceptionally long home runs exceeding 500 feet. On Kalshi, the probability that at least one 500+ foot home run will be recorded stands at 20.0%, while the probability of at least two such home runs is 7.0%. The market resolves based on official measurements from the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby. Watch for the competition itself on July 14, 2026, when the event window closes and final home run distances are confirmed for settlement.

Kalshi

The 2026 MLB Home Run Derby markets resolve based on the total number of home runs hit 500+ feet during the event. Each market corresponds to a minimum threshold: the 1+ HR market resolves Yes if at least one 500+ foot home run is recorded; the 2+ HR market resolves Yes if at least two are recorded; the 3+ HR market resolves Yes if at least three are recorded; the 4+ HR market resolves Yes if at least four are recorded; the 5+ HR market resolves Yes if at least five are recorded; and the 6+ HR market resolves Yes if at least six are recorded. All measurements are based on official MLB Home Run Derby tracking data. A home run counts toward these thresholds only if it meets or exceeds the 500-foot distance threshold during official competition rounds.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the 500+ foot home run market dashboard displays real-time odds and price history for whether a home run of 500 feet or greater will be hit during the Home Run Derby event. The dashboard tracks current market pricing, 24-hour volume of $1,822,535, and historical price movements as traders adjust their positions based on player lineups, weather conditions, and other relevant factors. This live data helps traders monitor sentiment and liquidity in the 500+ foot home run market as the event approaches.

Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they serve different purposes and audiences. Sportsbooks set odds to balance action and manage risk, while prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs through continuous price discovery. This market reflects what traders collectively believe about the likelihood of a 500+ foot home run occurring, which may differ from traditional sportsbook pricing. Comparing the two can reveal where market sentiment diverges from conventional betting lines, offering traders an alternative perspective on the event's outcome.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell shares representing yes or no outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each share reflects the collective probability estimate of whether a 500+ foot home run will occur, ranging from $0 to $1. As new information emerges or trader sentiment shifts, the bid-ask spread adjusts dynamically. Traders can enter limit or market orders to express their conviction, and the market price converges toward the true probability as more capital flows into the most likely outcome.

This market resolves around Jul 14, 2026, once the Home Run Derby event concludes and the outcome can be verified. The resolution hinges on whether any participant successfully hits a home run measuring 500 feet or greater during official competition. Credible public reporting from the event organizers and sports media will confirm the final result. Traders should monitor official announcements and verified coverage as the event date approaches to stay informed on any updates that could affect the market's resolution.

Several factors could shift this market significantly before Jul 14, 2026. Announcements of which players will participate in the Derby can influence odds, as certain hitters are known for exceptional power. Weather forecasts matter too—wind speed and direction, temperature, and humidity all affect home run distance. Updates on player injuries or fitness levels, changes to the event format or venue, and historical performance data from previous Derbies may prompt traders to adjust positions. Media coverage highlighting recent power-hitting trends or technological advances in equipment could also drive trading activity and repricing.