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Hollywood Casino 400 Winner
kalshi

Who will win the Hollywood Casino 400?

Volume:
$2,466,109

Kyle Larson

 - Kalshi

Kyle Larson - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 27, 2026

Closed: Sep 27, 6:46 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Kyle Larson

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$291,168
N/A
N/A
$176,223
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Chase Briscoe

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$238,020
N/A
N/A
$183,678
Settled
No
kalshi

Austin Cindric

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$189,858
N/A
N/A
$131,126
Settled
No
kalshi

Denny Hamlin

View
0%
17%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$179,649
N/A
N/A
$140,543
Settled
No
kalshi

Carson Hocevar

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$152,438
N/A
N/A
$137,382
Settled
No
kalshi

William Byron

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$144,250
N/A
N/A
$127,522
Settled
No
kalshi

Christopher Bell

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$136,580
N/A
N/A
$119,981
Settled
No
kalshi

Chase Elliott

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$132,978
N/A
N/A
$119,546
Settled
No
kalshi

Joey Logano

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$125,873
N/A
N/A
$111,630
Settled
No
kalshi

Bubba Wallace

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$120,541
N/A
N/A
$108,374
Settled
No
kalshi

Ryan Blaney

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$114,314
N/A
N/A
$96,121
Settled
No
kalshi

Tyler Reddick

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$106,047
N/A
N/A
$94,550
Settled
No
kalshi

Alex Bowman

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$89,841
N/A
N/A
$88,975
Settled
No
kalshi

Ty Gibbs

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$73,937
N/A
N/A
$69,246
Settled
No
kalshi

Ross Chastain

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$65,439
N/A
N/A
$65,439
Settled
No
kalshi

Josh Berry

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$58,475
N/A
N/A
$58,475
Settled
No
kalshi

Brad Keselowski

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$57,534
N/A
N/A
$56,441
Settled
No
kalshi

Chris Buescher

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$49,777
N/A
N/A
$49,122
Settled
No
kalshi

Ryan Preece

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$48,791
N/A
N/A
$48,791
Settled
No
kalshi

Daniel Suárez

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$19,160
N/A
N/A
$19,160
Settled
No
kalshi

Shane Van Gisbergen

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$13,477
N/A
N/A
$13,477
Settled
No
kalshi

AJ Allmendinger

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12,543
N/A
N/A
$12,543
Settled
No
kalshi

Connor Zilisch

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10,770
N/A
N/A
$10,770
Settled
No
kalshi

Erik Jones

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9,454
N/A
N/A
$9,454
Settled
No
kalshi

Ty Dillon

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,127
N/A
N/A
$7,127
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 36

Intro

This market tracks which driver will win the 2026 Hollywood Casino 400 NASCAR race. Currently, Kalshi gives Kyle Larson a 99.0% probability of winning. The market resolves based on official race results as determined by the event organizers, specifically if Zane Smith finishes first in the main race originally scheduled for September 27, 2026. Keep an eye on the race results following the completion of the event on September 28, 2026, as that is when this market will be settled.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the official final results of the 2026 Hollywood Casino 400 as posted by NASCAR. A market resolves to 'Yes' only if the specified competitor finishes first in the main race. If a competitor retires, is disqualified, or is not classified as a finisher, their market resolves to 'No'. If the race is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, markets remain open and resolve based on the final result. If the race is cancelled or does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time, all markets resolve to a fair price. Kalshi emphasizes it is not affiliated with the Governing League, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the odds for the winner of the NASCAR Cup Series championship, along with the price history and 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the volume is $1,832,667 and the total volume is $2,466,109. You can see how traders are assessing the probabilities of different drivers winning, and monitor changes in sentiment as the race approaches. This provides a real-time view of expectations for the Hollywood Casino 400.

Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often include a 'vig' or commission, which influences the payouts, and may adjust lines based on betting patterns to balance their risk. This market, however, is driven purely by individuals predicting the outcome, creating a wisdom-of-the-crowd effect. While sportsbooks may initially set odds based on analysts' predictions, prediction markets dynamically adjust as new information emerges and traders react, potentially offering more accurate probabilities as the event approaches. It's common to see differences in implied probabilities between this market and traditional sportsbooks.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the probability of each driver winning the race. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of that driver’s chances. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust, creating a dynamic representation of expectations. Higher demand for a particular driver’s contract will increase its price, indicating a greater perceived probability of victory.

This market resolves around Sep 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official results of the Hollywood Casino 400 race, determining which driver is declared the winner. The official finishing order published by NASCAR will serve as the basis for determining the winning contract in this market. Any protests or appeals following the race will be considered as part of the resolution process, ensuring a fair and accurate outcome.

Several factors could significantly shift the odds in this market. Unexpected driver injuries or mechanical failures during practice or qualifying sessions would be major catalysts. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly the potential for rain, could also impact driver performance and alter the market. News regarding team strategies, engine changes, or aerodynamic adjustments could influence trader sentiment. Finally, any significant upsets or surprising performances in preliminary races leading up to Sep 28, 2026 could reshape expectations for the Hollywood Casino 400.