TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 5, 8:24 AM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks the outcome of a baseball game between the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters and the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles, focusing on the margin of victory. It determines whether either team will win by a specific number of runs or more. The result reflects the competitive balance between the two teams in this scheduled match.
The event evaluates different run-differential thresholds for the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters vs. Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles game scheduled for September 5, 2026. Four distinct markets cover varying margins of victory: Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles winning by over 2.5 runs, Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles winning by over 1.5 runs, Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters winning by over 1.5 runs, and Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters winning by over 2.5 runs. Each market resolves to 'Yes' if the specified team achieves the corresponding run-differential threshold in the game. All markets operate independently, meaning each has its own resolution criteria based solely on the final score of the game as originally scheduled. The markets are unaffiliated with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the latest information and sentiment. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The spread itself is determined by the difference in prices between contracts favoring each team, indicating the market’s expectation of the final run differential. Traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the outcome and capitalizing on price discrepancies.
This market resolves around Sep 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the final run differential between the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters and the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles in the scheduled game. The market will determine whether the Fighters win by over 2.5 runs, under 2.5 runs, or exactly 2.5 runs. The final result will be sourced from official game statistics and verified against credible public sources.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding key player injuries or changes to the starting pitchers for either team would likely cause significant movement. Weather conditions at the game location could also play a role, particularly if they are expected to favor one team’s hitting or pitching style. Unexpected lineup changes or late-breaking news about team morale could also shift trader sentiment. Finally, large volume trades from informed participants could also cause noticeable price fluctuations in this market.