TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 25, 8:05 AM EST
Kalshi
This market assesses the potential margin of victory in an upcoming baseball game between two professional teams. It focuses on predicting whether a team will win by a specific number of runs or more, reflecting the competitive balance and expected performance of both teams in the contest.
The event consists of four separate outcome markets tied to the same baseball game, each defining a different winning margin threshold for either team. A 'Yes' outcome resolves if the specified team wins by exceeding the designated run differential—either 1.5 or 2.5 runs—for their respective victory condition. All markets apply to the game originally scheduled for August 25, 2026, at 5:00 AM EDT, and share identical secondary disclaimers regarding Kalshi’s lack of official affiliation with the governing league. The resolution hinges solely on the final run differential, with no adjustments for cancellations, forfeits, or other irregularities beyond the stated conditions.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders manually set prices through buying and selling contracts, which determines the current implied probability. The market price adjusts continuously based on order flow and open interest, capturing collective expectations about the spread outcome. This decentralized pricing model allows rapid shifts in response to new information or betting trends among participants.
This market resolves around Aug 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result is determined by the official game statistics and point differential, which are checked against the market’s defined spread. Once the game concludes and results are publicly confirmed, the market settles automatically based on those figures.
Injuries to key players, weather conditions affecting game performance, and recent team form are major signals that could shift this market. Additional impact may come from changes in coaching strategies or lineup announcements, as well as any last-minute trading activity on Kalshi that reflects new information. Bettors should watch official team updates and injury reports closely as the game nears.