TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 26, 3:35 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of two baseball teams in an upcoming match, focusing on the margin of victory. It evaluates different run differentials to determine the outcome, providing insight into expected competitive balance. The resolution depends entirely on the final score of the game as it unfolds.
The event covers a baseball game between the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters and the Orix Buffaloes scheduled for September 26, 2026. Four distinct outcome markets exist, each evaluating the winning team’s margin of victory. If the Orix Buffaloes win by more than 2.5 runs, the first market resolves to Yes. If they win by more than 1.5 runs, the second market resolves to Yes. Conversely, if the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters win by more than 1.5 runs, the third market resolves to Yes, and if they win by more than 2.5 runs, the fourth market resolves to Yes. Only one of these markets can resolve to Yes, depending on the exact run differential of the final score. All markets share the same secondary disclaimer stating that Kalshi is not affiliated with the governing league and that all trademarks belong to their respective owners.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect a more accurate aggregate forecast than sportsbook odds, as they incorporate the wisdom of the crowd. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to attract action, and may adjust them based on betting patterns or house preferences. This market, however, is driven purely by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. While there can be short-term discrepancies, prediction markets often converge towards a more precise probability assessment as more information becomes available and trading volume increases. It's important to compare both to get a well-rounded view.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing potential outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy contracts for a particular outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading activity influence the bid-ask spread, which represents the cost of entering or exiting a position. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities accordingly.
This market resolves around Sep 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters versus Orix Buffaloes series, determining the winner of the NPB championship. The platform will verify the result against publicly available sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will be paid out according to the final market prices at resolution. It’s important to monitor news and updates leading up to this date.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Key player injuries or unexpected changes in team performance are likely to cause shifts in probabilities. Major announcements regarding team strategies or managerial decisions could also impact trader sentiment. Furthermore, any significant news related to the overall health of the league or unforeseen circumstances affecting the series schedule could move the market. Monitoring team statistics, expert analyses, and general news coverage will be crucial for understanding potential catalysts that could affect the odds in this market.