TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 28, 8:20 AM EST
Kalshi
Another baseball contest evaluates if a team secures victory by a particular run difference. The result hinges on the winning team's ability to overcome the opponent by the specified number of runs.
The market resolves to Yes if either the Chiba Lotte Marines win by more than 2.5 or 1.5 runs, or the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters win by more than 1.5 or 2.5 runs in their NPB game on Sep 28, 2026. Four separate thresholds determine different market outcomes, each corresponding to a particular run differential requirement. The match must occur on the scheduled date; any rescheduling or cancellation voids all markets. Kalshi emphasizes no official connection with the Governing League, and all trademarks belong to their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own information and analysis. If a significant discrepancy exists, arbitrage opportunities may arise, where traders can profit by simultaneously buying and selling the same outcome on Kalshi and a sportsbook. However, it's important to consider factors like differing market liquidity and transaction costs when evaluating these opportunities.
This market resolves around Sep 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread will be determined by the actual result of the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters versus Chiba Lotte Marines game. The market will then pay out to traders who correctly predicted the spread, based on the contract prices at the time of resolution. It’s important to monitor the event closely as the resolution date approaches to understand any potential factors that could influence the final result.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Any news regarding key player injuries, changes in pitching rotations, or weather forecasts impacting the game could influence trader sentiment. Unexpected performance in preceding games by either the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters or the Chiba Lotte Marines could also shift expectations. Furthermore, large volume trades on Kalshi itself can indicate informed activity and potentially trigger further price movements. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for anyone actively trading in this market.