TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 7:45 AM EST
Kalshi
This market assesses the potential margin of victory in an upcoming baseball game between two teams. It allows participants to speculate on whether one team will win by a specific number of runs or more. The outcome depends entirely on the final score of the game.
The market resolves based on the margin of victory in the specified baseball game between the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters and the Chiba Lotte Marines. Four distinct outcome conditions are evaluated: the Chiba Lotte Marines winning by over 2.5 or 1.5 runs, and the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters winning by over 1.5 or 2.5 runs. If any of these conditions are met according to the official game result, the corresponding market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. All markets are independent assessments of different victory margins and are subject to the same game timing and official result criteria. Kalshi explicitly states it holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust accordingly. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The spread itself represents the difference in implied probability between the two teams, with traders essentially betting on whether the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters will win by more or less than the specified run differential. The current market depth provides insight into the strength of conviction behind different predictions.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final score differential between the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters and the Chiba Lotte Marines will be used to determine whether the Fighters win by over 1.5 runs, under 1.5 runs, or exactly 1.5 runs. The resolution will be based on official game statistics and will be publicly available following the conclusion of the game. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies for future events.
Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market leading up to the game. Any news regarding key player injuries or changes to the starting lineups for either the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters or the Chiba Lotte Marines would likely cause significant movement. Weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to impact the game, could also play a role. Furthermore, any shifts in public sentiment or expert analysis regarding the teams' chances of winning could drive trading volume and price fluctuations. Monitoring these signals can provide valuable insights into potential market movements.