TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
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2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
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MATCHED EVENTS:
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PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 12, 11:31 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of two Bundesliga teams in an upcoming match, focusing on the margin of victory for either side. It evaluates whether the winning team achieves a decisive lead, defined by specific goal differences. The outcome depends purely on the final score after regular time, excluding any extra periods or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates different margins of victory in the Hoffenheim vs Stuttgart Bundesliga match scheduled for September 12, 2026. All markets resolve based solely on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with no consideration for extra time or penalty phases. A 'Yes' outcome occurs if Hoffenheim wins by more than 2.5 goals, Hoffenheim wins by more than 1.5 goals, Stuttgart wins by more than 1.5 goals, or Stuttgart wins by more than 2.5 goals. Each rule independently defines a specific threshold for victory margins, and any one of these conditions being met will resolve the respective market to 'Yes'. The rules clarify that Kalshi has no official affiliation with the Bundesliga or its governing bodies, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, often differing from initial sportsbook odds which can be influenced by factors like public perception or early betting action. Sportsbooks may also adjust their lines more slowly than this market responds to new information. While sportsbooks aim to set lines that attract balanced betting, this market allows participants to directly express their beliefs about the outcome, potentially leading to a more accurate assessment as the event approaches. It's common to see convergence between the two as kickoff nears.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the spread in the Hoffenheim vs Stuttgart match. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective prediction of all participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded. The current price represents the probability that the spread will fall within the contract's range, as determined by the aggregated orders on the exchange.
This market resolves around Sep 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final spread in the Hoffenheim vs Stuttgart match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the game, as reported by a trusted sports data provider. Traders will then be paid out or have their positions adjusted based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual spread. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market's outcome.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Sep 12, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either Hoffenheim or Stuttgart would likely have a significant impact. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about player availability, coaching changes, or even pre-game analysis from reputable sources could all contribute to price movements. The closer we get to the match, the more sensitive this market will be to new information.