TOTAL VOLUME:
$146.7b
24H VOL:
$162,970,420
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,781,800,361
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,740,912,349
501,518
Markets across
37,286
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,933
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
Hoffenheim
- Kalshi
Hoffenheim - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Oct 22, 2026
Time left: 02h:28m:02s
$
This market tracks whether Hoffenheim will win their Europa League soccer match against Lyon. Currently, Kalshi gives Hoffenheim a 57.0% probability of winning, while a tie is priced at 24.0%. The market resolves based on the outcome of the match originally scheduled for October 22, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, as determined by the official result reported for the Hoffenheim vs Lyon professional Europa League soccer game. Keep an eye on the teams’ lineups announced prior to the October 22, 2026 kickoff, as these will indicate each team’s intended approach to the match.
The event resolves based on the result of the Hoffenheim vs Lyon professional Europa League soccer match originally scheduled for October 22, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks. Three distinct outcomes are possible: Hoffenheim win, Lyon win, or a tie. If the match concludes with either team securing a victory within regular time, the corresponding market will resolve to Yes. Should the game end in a tie after the same duration, the Tie market resolves to Yes. In the event the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as determined per the platform's guidelines. The event explicitly excludes outcomes determined during extra time or penalty shootouts, focusing solely on the result within the standard match duration.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their risk and ensure profit, while this market allows individuals to express their own informed opinions. As more information becomes available – such as team news or injury reports – the odds on Kalshi may converge or diverge from sportsbook offerings. It’s common to see prediction markets outperform traditional odds, especially when there’s significant public information available that isn’t fully priced into the sportsbook lines.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the Hoffenheim vs Lyon match. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit if their predictions are correct and lose if they are wrong. This dynamic creates a real-time assessment of probabilities based on the aggregated knowledge of all participants.
This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Hoffenheim vs Lyon match, as reported by a widely recognized sports data provider. The specific outcome that triggers resolution will depend on the contract purchased, representing the final score or match result. Traders will be able to claim their winnings or cover their losses following the official confirmation of the match’s outcome.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 22, 2026. Key player injuries or suspensions for either Hoffenheim or Lyon would likely cause shifts in the odds. Unexpected changes in team form, such as a surprising win or loss in a preceding match, could also impact trader sentiment. Furthermore, any news regarding coaching changes, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions on match day could all contribute to movement in the market. Major announcements related to the teams or the competition could also move the market.