TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 13, 7:54 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of two baseball teams in an upcoming match, focusing on the margin of victory. Bettors can speculate on whether a team will win by a specific number of runs or more. The outcome depends entirely on the final score of the game.
The event covers a single baseball game between the Hiroshima Toyo Carp and the Tokyo Yakult Swallows, scheduled for September 13, 2026. Four distinct outcome markets exist, each defined by a specific run differential threshold: the Tokyo Yakult Swallows winning by over 2.5 runs, the Tokyo Yakult Swallows winning by over 1.5 runs, the Hiroshima Toyo Carp winning by over 1.5 runs, and the Hiroshima Toyo Carp winning by over 2.5 runs. Each market resolves to 'Yes' if the corresponding team achieves a victory exceeding the stated run margin; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. All markets operate independently, allowing for varied betting strategies based on expected score differentials. The rules clarify that the platform hosting these markets has no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market aggregates the views of many individuals with varying levels of knowledge. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the dynamics of supply and demand within the prediction market. It’s common to see prediction market prices move independently of sportsbook odds, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts regarding the matchup.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. As more traders express their views, the prices adjust dynamically, creating a real-time assessment of the potential spread between the Hiroshima Toyo Carp and the Tokyo Yakult Swallows. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price is determined solely by supply and demand on Kalshi and doesn’t directly correlate with any external factors beyond the information available to traders.
This market resolves around Sep 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final official result of the Hiroshima Toyo Carp versus Tokyo Yakult Swallows game, specifically the actual point spread achieved. Any official adjustments or revisions to the game’s results will be taken into consideration during the resolution process. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their predictions aligned with the final, verified outcome of the game.
Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market before it resolves around Sep 13, 2026. Key player injuries or unexpected lineup changes for either the Hiroshima Toyo Carp or the Tokyo Yakult Swallows would certainly impact predictions. Significant news regarding team performance, such as a winning or losing streak, could also shift the odds. Even broader factors, like changes in public perception or expert analysis regarding the teams’ chances, may affect how traders price this market. Ultimately, any information that alters the perceived probability of the spread will likely cause movement.