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Hiroshima Carp vs. Yomiuri Giants
kalshi
polymarket

What is the result of Hiroshima Carp vs. Yomiuri Giants?

Volume:
$12,040

Yomiuri Giants wins by over 1.5 runs

 - Kalshi

Yomiuri Giants wins by over 1.5 runs - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 5, 2026

Closed: Aug 4, 9:20 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Yomiuri Giants wins by over 1.5 runs

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,436
N/A
N/A
$3,176
Settled
No
kalshi

Yomiuri Giants wins by over 2.5 runs

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,297
N/A
N/A
$3,205
Settled
No
polymarket

Hiroshima Carp vs. Yomiuri Giants

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,917
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Hiroshima Toyo Carp wins by over 1.5 runs

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,459
N/A
N/A
$1,459
Settled
No
kalshi

Hiroshima Toyo Carp wins by over 2.5 runs

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$931
N/A
N/A
$931
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This event group covers the outcome of an NPB baseball game between the Hiroshima Carp and the Yomiuri Giants. The markets differ in their specific resolution criteria, with one focusing on the simple win condition and the other on run differentials.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The Polymarket contract resolves on simple win/loss/tie conditions while the Kalshi contract resolves on specific run-differential thresholds, creating fundamentally different outcome setsHero tip: Treat these as separate bets — the Polymarket market answers Who Wins? while Kalshi answers How Much Do They Win By? Do not assume correlated payouts

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to Hiroshima Carp if they win, Yomiuri Giants if they win, 50-50 for ties/cancellations/postponements — simple win condition market
  • Kalschi: Resolves Yes if either team wins by more than 1.5 or 2.5 runs (any margin above these thresholds), No otherwise — binary threshold market
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming NPB game, scheduled for August 5 at 5:00AM ET: If the Hiroshima Carp win, the market will resolve to "Hiroshima Carp". If the Yomiuri Giants win, the market will resolve to "Yomiuri Giants". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the NPB. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

The event consists of four distinct outcome markets all tied to the same baseball game between the Yomiuri Giants and the Hiroshima Toyo Carp, scheduled for August 4, 2026. Each market resolves based on the winning team exceeding a specified run differential threshold: Hiroshima Toyo Carp winning by over 2.5 runs, Hiroshima Toyo Carp winning by over 1.5 runs, Yomiuri Giants winning by over 1.5 runs, or Yomiuri Giants winning by over 2.5 runs. All markets share the same underlying game and official date/time, with resolution contingent upon the actual run difference between the two teams at the conclusion of the contest. The secondary rules clarify that the platform hosting these markets has no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Carp vs. Giants matchup market aggregates data across platforms, showing real-time probabilities and volume for this market. It tracks how Polymarket and Kalshi price the contest, highlighting the consensus view and any shifts in trader sentiment as the game approaches. You can watch how odds evolve and compare the relative confidence in each team’s performance through $12,040 in combined volume.

Prediction market odds on this market often differ from traditional sportsbook lines due to the speculative nature of trader positioning and the ability to bet on granular outcomes. While sportsbooks may offer a simple moneyline or spread, this market lets participants wager on specific scenarios, sometimes reflecting sharper or more volatile pricing. Traders watch for mispricings between the two, with differences driven by liquidity, public sentiment, and the unique betting structures available.

Injuries to key players, weather delays, or recent performance trends can all shift this market as the game nears. Traders will also react to any betting surges on either side, especially as the matchup gains attention closer to the contest. News on team strategies or pitchering changes may also cause rapid swings in probability, so keeping an eye on pre-game updates is essential for spotting movement.