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Hiroshima Carp vs. Hanshin Tigers
kalshi
polymarket

Hiroshima Carp vs. Hanshin Tigers

Volume:
$20,019

Hanshin Tigers wins by over 1.5 runs

 - Kalshi

Hanshin Tigers wins by over 1.5 runs - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 16, 2026

Closed: Aug 16, 8:04 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Hanshin Tigers wins by over 1.5 runs

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10,256
N/A
N/A
$8,213
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Hanshin Tigers wins by over 2.5 runs

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,049
N/A
N/A
$2,588
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Hiroshima Carp vs. Hanshin Tigers

View
0%
44%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,101
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Hiroshima Toyo Carp wins by over 2.5 runs

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$895
N/A
N/A
$825
Settled
No
kalshi

Hiroshima Toyo Carp wins by over 1.5 runs

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$718
N/A
N/A
$706
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This event group covers the outcome of an NPB baseball game between the Hiroshima Carp and the Hanshin Tigers scheduled for August 16, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. The markets differ in their specific resolution criteria for determining the winner and win margins.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Fundamental divergence in resolution logic: Polymarket uses simple win/loss outcome while Kalshi uses run differential thresholdsHero tip: Avoid direct arbitrage between these markets as they resolve differently. Polymarket pays out based on who wins the game, while Kalshi pays out based on the margin of victory. Focus trading on the platform whose resolution logic matches your prediction.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to Hiroshima Carp if they win, Hanshin Tigers if they win, 50-50 for ties/cancellations. Key quote: If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if Hiroshima wins by >1.5 or >2.5 runs OR if Hanshin wins by >1.5 or >2.5 runs. Key quote: If the Hiroshima Toyo Carp win by more than 1.5 runs... then the market resolves to Yes.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming NPB game, scheduled for August 16 at 5:00AM ET: If the Hiroshima Carp win, the market will resolve to "Hiroshima Carp". If the Hanshin Tigers win, the market will resolve to "Hanshin Tigers". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the NPB. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

These markets resolve based on the run differential by which either the Hiroshima Toyo Carp or the Hanshin Tigers win the game originally scheduled for August 16, 2026 at 5:00 AM EDT. Four distinct outcome thresholds exist: Hiroshima winning by over 2.5 runs, Hiroshima winning by over 1.5 runs, Hanshin winning by over 1.5 runs, and Hanshin winning by over 2.5 runs. If the actual result matches any of these conditions exactly — for example, a 3-run victory — the corresponding market resolves accordingly. All markets share the same underlying event context and disclaim any official affiliation with the governing league, with all trademarks belonging to their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Carp vs. Tigers matchup market aggregates activity across multiple venues, showing real-time volume of $20,019 and 24-hour volume of $20,019. It visualizes how traders on different platforms price this market, highlighting any consensus or splits in expectations for the game’s result. This cross-platform view lets users see where interest is concentrated and how odds shift as the event approaches.

Injuries to key players, weather delays, or changes in team strategy could all shift this market as the game nears. Traders will also react to any last-minute lineups or pitching announcements, which can cause rapid swings in implied probabilities. Keep an eye on official team updates and pre-game commentary to anticipate potential moves in this market.