TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
- Polymarket
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie - Polymarket
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 5, 2026
Closed: May 30, 8:00 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks which film released in April 2026 will generate the highest domestic box office revenue by the end of May. On Polymarket, "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" commands 98.7% probability as the leading contender, while "Michael" holds 0.1%. Resolution will be determined by Daily Box Office Performance data from The Numbers website, with alphabetical ordering applied in case of exact ties. Watch for final domestic grossing figures through May 31, 2026, as this deadline marks when box office totals will be locked in for resolution.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-time trader sentiment and aggregate information from box office tracking, critic reviews, and audience reception data. Unlike traditional analyst forecasts, which rely on pre-release estimates and expert opinion, prediction markets incorporate continuous updates as April films earn revenue. Traders adjust positions based on actual performance, making market odds dynamic and responsive. This crowd-sourced pricing often diverges from initial analyst predictions, particularly as opening weekends and word-of-mouth effects become visible.
The market resolves on May 31, 2026, after the final domestic box office tallies for all April releases are published. Resolution is determined by comparing the total domestic gross of every film released during April and identifying which achieved the highest cumulative revenue. Box office data from authoritative tracking sources establishes the definitive outcome. Traders holding shares in the winning film receive full payout, while all other positions expire worthless.
Opening weekend box office results for April releases will significantly shift market odds, as actual revenue data replaces pre-release speculation. Critical reviews and audience scores on platforms like Rotten Tomatoes and IMDb influence repeat viewership and word-of-mouth momentum. International box office performance, if it correlates with domestic trends, can signal strength. Marketing campaigns, celebrity interviews, and social media buzz affect trader perception. Unexpected competition from delayed releases or underperforming sequels may reshape expectations for which film dominates April's domestic gross.
