TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 15, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the margin of victory in an upcoming Scottish Premiership soccer match between Hibernian and Kilmarnock. Each market corresponds to a specific goal-differential threshold that determines the outcome. The resolution depends entirely on the final score after regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
These markets resolve based on the goal differential in the Hibernian vs Kilmarnock Scottish Premiership match scheduled for September 15, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Outcomes are determined exclusively by regular-time scoring; extra time and penalty shootouts are disregarded. A 'Yes' resolution occurs if Hibernian wins by more than 2.5 goals, Hibernian wins by more than 1.5 goals, Kilmarnock wins by more than 1.5 goals, or Kilmarnock wins by more than 2.5 goals. All markets operate independently, with each evaluating its specific threshold for resolution. Kalshi explicitly states no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, which represents their profit margin. This market, however, is driven purely by the collective predictions of traders, potentially leading to more accurate probabilities, especially as the event draws nearer. While sportsbooks may initially set odds based on statistical models and expert analysis, this market dynamically adjusts based on real-time information and participant insights.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy into a particular outcome, its price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The spread is determined by the collective actions of all participants, creating a dynamic and potentially insightful forecast for the Hibernian vs Kilmarnock match.
This market resolves around Sep 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread of the Hibernian vs Kilmarnock match, as determined by official sources, will be used to determine the winning contracts. Traders who correctly predicted the spread will receive a payout based on the odds at the time of their trade, while those who predicted incorrectly will forfeit their investment. It’s important to monitor the event closely as the resolution date approaches.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team formations, or even weather conditions could significantly shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about key players being unavailable, or a change in managerial tactics, could all lead to price fluctuations. Furthermore, public opinion and expert analysis, while not directly reflected in the market, can indirectly influence trader behavior and move the odds as the Hibernian vs Kilmarnock match approaches.