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420,493
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Time left: 11d:13h:10m
Will "Here You Come, There You Go" rank No. 1–2 on Billboard Hot 100?
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Description
This event tracks the performance of a specific song on a major music chart by measuring its position within a defined timeframe. The outcome depends purely on where the song lands on the chart, reflecting public listening trends and industry metrics at the time.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether the song 'Here You Come, There You Go' by Gracie Abrams achieves a position within various rank ranges on the Billboard Hot 100 chart dated November 14, 2026. Multiple markets cover sequential rank bands—from positions 1 to 2 through to 75 to 100—each resolving to 'Yes' if the song falls within its specified range. All markets share identical secondary disclaimers clarifying that the platform has no official affiliation with Billboard, and that all related trademarks remain property of their respective owners. The structure allows participants to speculate on the song’s chart success across a broad spectrum of possible outcomes.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional analyst forecasts, as those haven’t been widely published for a chart ranking so far in the future. However, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than typical analyst reports. They reflect the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. If early music industry predictions emerge, it will be interesting to see if they align with the probabilities established by traders in this market, or if the market reveals a different expectation.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices will adjust accordingly. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The contracts are denominated in US dollars, and traders can take either the ‘buy’ or ‘sell’ side of any outcome, effectively making a prediction about the song’s final Billboard Hot 100 ranking.
This market resolves around Nov 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final ranking of “Here You Come, There You Go” on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of November 14, 2026 will determine the outcome. The Billboard Hot 100 is a standard and widely-recognized measure of a song's popularity, and its official rankings will be used to settle this market. Traders should monitor the chart’s progress as the resolution date approaches.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Early radio play and streaming numbers for the song will be key indicators. Positive critical reception and viral trends on social media platforms could also drive up the perceived probability of a high ranking. Conversely, negative reviews or a lack of initial traction could lower expectations. Major promotional events, such as music video releases or live performances, could also influence the market. Any significant news regarding the artist or the song itself will likely cause shifts in trading activity and contract prices within this market.
