TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 9:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the performance of a musical collaboration during a specific week, focusing on how many times the song is streamed online. The outcome depends on whether the song reaches certain listener engagement thresholds within that period. Results are determined by an independent data provider.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether the song 'Heavy Is The Crown' by Anderson .Paak & Cordae achieves specified streaming milestones during the U.S. tracking week of October 23, 2026, to October 29, 2026. Multiple markets exist, each corresponding to a different streaming threshold (ranging from above 1 million to above 20 million streams). All markets resolve based on data reported by Luminate’s API as of 10:00 AM ET on the Sunday immediately following the tracking week. Luminate acts as a neutral metrics provider and does not influence market outcomes. The resolution for each market is binary: 'Yes' if the stated threshold is met or exceeded, and 'No' otherwise.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, there are no widely available analyst forecasts directly comparable to this market’s specific question about first-week streaming numbers for “Heavy Is The Crown.” However, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and viewpoints than traditional polls or expert opinions. This market reflects the aggregated judgment of individuals incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. When compared to general music industry expectations, this market provides a unique perspective on the potential success of the song, potentially revealing insights beyond those offered by conventional music critics or chart predictions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether “Heavy Is The Crown” will surpass 4,000,000 streams during the specified week. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, with higher prices indicating a greater likelihood. Traders can set their own bid and ask prices, and the market continuously adjusts based on supply and demand. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time assessment of expectations surrounding the song’s streaming performance.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official streaming data for the October 23, 2026 - October 29, 2026 tracking week is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the total number of streams for “Heavy Is The Crown” across major streaming platforms during that period. The market will determine whether the song exceeded the 4,000,000 stream threshold, and payouts will be made accordingly to those who correctly predicted the outcome.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Pre-release hype surrounding “Heavy Is The Crown,” including social media engagement and early reviews, could significantly impact trading activity. Major promotional events, such as music video releases or live performances, could also shift expectations. Unexpected news related to Anderson .Paak or Cordae, or changes in the broader music landscape, could also play a role. Any significant shifts in streaming trends or platform algorithms could also move this market as traders adjust their predictions based on new information.
