TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
20-23m
- Polymarket
20-23m - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 28, 2026
Closed: Sep 28, 5:44 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to how much "Heart of the Beast" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (September 25 - 27) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by October 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to how much "Heart of the Beast" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (September 25 - 27) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by October 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different outlook than many traditional analyst forecasts for the Heart of the Beast opening weekend. While some analysts predict a box office exceeding $50 million, this market suggests a more conservative range, with probabilities distributed across lower revenue brackets. It’s important to remember that analyst predictions are often based on historical data and studio projections, while this market incorporates the wisdom of the crowd and real-time information. This difference highlights the potential value of prediction markets in gauging true expectations.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing different potential opening weekend box office ranges for the Heart of the Beast. The price of each share reflects the market’s collective probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price is determined by supply and demand – if more people believe a particular outcome is likely, the price of shares representing that outcome will increase. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the most up-to-date information and sentiment.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official opening weekend box office numbers for the Heart of the Beast are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on reported domestic box office revenue for the film’s opening weekend, as defined by industry standards. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their purchased shares correspond to the actual box office range achieved. This provides a clear and objective determination of the market’s outcome.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before it resolves. Early reviews and audience reactions following premiere screenings will be key indicators. Positive buzz could drive up optimism and shift probabilities towards higher box office projections, while negative reviews could have the opposite effect. Additionally, any major marketing pushes or unexpected publicity surrounding the Heart of the Beast could impact predictions. Finally, competitor film releases during the opening weekend could also affect the box office performance and, consequently, the movement of this market.
