TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 13, 5:04 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on the margin of victory in the same Europa League match, evaluating whether either team wins by a specific goal difference. The result hinges on the difference in goals scored after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties.
The market resolves based on the goal difference in the Heart of Midlothian vs SL Benfica Europa League match scheduled for August 13, 2026. Each rule specifies a different winning margin threshold for either team, ranging from Heart of Midlothian winning by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals to SL Benfica winning by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals. If the specified margin is achieved after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Extra time and penalty goals are excluded from the count. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect a more nuanced view of probabilities compared to traditional sportsbook lines. In this market, traders directly price their expectations of the regulation time spread, which can diverge from sportsbook spreads due to different participant dynamics and real-time information flow. While sportsbooks set fixed lines, this market adjusts dynamically based on trader activity and new developments, sometimes showing sharper or more volatile shifts.
This market resolves around Aug 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the match result is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final regulation time spread is determined purely by the goals scored by each team during the standard 90 minutes, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts. Once official results are published, the market settles automatically based on that verified data.
Key events like player injuries, tactical announcements, or recent form of both teams can shift this market. Strong performances in warm-ups or changes to starting lineups may cause rapid price adjustments. Additionally, broader factors such as weather conditions on match day or psychological pressure from past fixtures can influence trader sentiment and drive volume spikes or sharp movements in odds before Aug 13, 2026.