TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 12, 9:36 PM EST
Kalshi
Hartford Athletic plays Tampa Bay in a USL Championship soccer match. The result hinges on the goal differential for either side after regular time, which includes 90 minutes plus stoppage time but excludes extra time and penalties.
This event assesses whether Hartford Athletic or Tampa Bay secures a particular winning margin in their USL Championship game set for Sep 12, 2026. The four possible resolutions are: Hartford Athletic winning by more than 2.5 goals, Hartford Athletic winning by more than 1.5 goals, Tampa Bay winning by more than 1.5 goals, or Tampa Bay winning by more than 2.5 goals. The match must finish within 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shootouts are not considered. Any of the defined winning margins trigger a Yes resolution for the corresponding market; otherwise, it resolves to No. Kalshi emphasizes no official connection with the Governing League, and all trademarks belong to their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of informed traders, and can sometimes diverge from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks typically set initial lines to balance betting action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market is driven purely by supply and demand. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook has mispriced an outcome, they can express that view by trading in this market, potentially leading to odds that differ from those offered elsewhere. It's common to see prediction markets move faster to incorporate new information than sportsbooks, as traders react quickly to developments.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on the balance of buying and selling pressure. The more traders who believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of the corresponding contract will rise, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market reflects the most up-to-date information and collective intelligence.
This market resolves around Sep 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final result of the Hartford Athletic vs Tampa Bay match, specifically the spread. This means the final score difference between the two teams will be used to determine which side of the spread wins. The platform will verify the result against publicly available and trusted sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders will then be paid out based on their positions in this market.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market before Sep 13, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or unexpected weather conditions could significantly shift the perceived probabilities. Major upsets in other matches involving these teams, or even broader trends in the league, could also impact trader sentiment. Furthermore, significant betting volume from informed traders could create momentum and drive price movements. Monitoring these signals and staying informed about the latest developments will be crucial for understanding how this market evolves.