TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 26, 4:25 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a baseball game between two teams, focusing on the margin of victory. It evaluates whether the winning team secures a lead exceeding specific run differences. The result depends entirely on the final score of the match as it concludes in regulation time.
The event determines whether either team wins the specified baseball game by a margin greater than the stated run lines. Four separate conditions are evaluated: Yokohama DeNA BayStars winning by more than 2.5 runs, Yokohama DeNA BayStars winning by more than 1.5 runs, Hanshin Tigers winning by more than 1.5 runs, and Hanshin Tigers winning by more than 2.5 runs. If any of these conditions are met, the corresponding market resolves accordingly. The markets are independent assessments of victory margins and are not cumulative; each rule operates separately to define its respective outcome. All markets apply solely to the game originally scheduled for the specified date and time, and Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league or ownership of associated trademarks and branding.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own insights. Often, prediction markets are more accurate than traditional forecasts, as they aggregate diverse perspectives. However, sportsbook odds can be a useful benchmark for understanding where the public initially perceives value in this market.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different spread outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing sentiment. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market efficiently incorporates all available knowledge regarding the Hanshin Tigers and Yokohama DeNA BayStars matchup.
This market resolves around Sep 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread will be determined by the actual point difference between the Hanshin Tigers and Yokohama DeNA BayStars in the completed game. The market will settle based on the official game results, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the winning contracts. Traders should monitor official sources for the final score to understand the resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before it resolves. Any news regarding key player injuries, changes in starting pitchers, or weather forecasts impacting the game could significantly shift market sentiment. Unexpected announcements about team strategies or even pre-game reports on player morale could also cause movement. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed participants could indicate new information entering the market, potentially altering the odds for the Hanshin Tigers vs BayStars spread.