TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 23, 4:25 AM EST
Kalshi
This market assesses the potential margin of victory in an upcoming baseball game between two professional teams. It focuses on how many runs one team might win by over the other, reflecting the competitive balance expected in the match. Outcomes are determined by the final score difference if the game is played as scheduled.
The event evaluates different run-difference thresholds for determining a winner in a specific baseball match between the Hanshin Tigers and Tokyo Yakult Swallows, scheduled for September 23, 2026. Four distinct outcome categories exist: Tokyo Yakult Swallows winning by over 2.5 runs, Tokyo Yakult Swallows winning by over 1.5 runs, Hanshin Tigers winning by over 1.5 runs, and Hanshin Tigers winning by over 2.5 runs. Each category resolves positively ('Yes') if the final score meets or exceeds its specified run-difference threshold in the team’s favor. If no game occurs as scheduled, all markets are void. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook is undervaluing a particular outcome, the odds here may move in the opposite direction. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts regarding the Hanshin Tigers and Tokyo Yakult Swallows.
This market resolves around Sep 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Hanshin Tigers versus Tokyo Yakult Swallows spread, as determined by official league statistics. The market will determine whether the Tokyo Yakult Swallows win by over 1.5 runs, based on the final score. Traders will be able to see the final result and how it impacts their positions once the official results are released and verified.
Several factors could influence this market before its resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Hanshin Tigers or Tokyo Yakult Swallows would likely cause significant movement. Changes in pitching rotations, weather forecasts impacting game conditions, or even shifts in public perception based on recent team performance could all play a role. Unexpected announcements about team strategies or manager decisions could also impact trading activity. The market will react to any new information that alters the perceived probability of the Tokyo Yakult Swallows winning by over 1.5 runs.