TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Hanshin Tigers vs. Tokyo Yakult Swallows
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win the Hanshin Tigers vs. Tokyo Yakult Swallows game?

Volume:
$174,731

Tokyo Yakult Swallows

 - Kalshi

Tokyo Yakult Swallows - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 10, 2026

Closed: Jul 10, 8:24 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Tokyo Yakult Swallows

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$96,689
N/A
N/A
$49,443
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Hanshin Tigers

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$76,729
N/A
N/A
$43,619
Settled
No
polymarket

Hanshin Tigers vs. Tokyo Yakult Swallows

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,313
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 3

Description

This event group covers a single NPB (Nippon Professional Baseball) regular season game between the Hanshin Tigers and Tokyo Yakult Swallows scheduled for July 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM EDT. Markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are pricing the outcome of this matchup, with resolution tied to the official game result.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's resolution logic is internally contradictory, stating both possible outcomes (Tigers win OR Swallows win) resolve to Yes, which is logically impossible for a binary market. This makes the market fundamentally unresolvable as written.Hero tip: Avoid trading Kalshi until the platform clarifies whether this is a documentation error or if the market actually resolves on game completion status rather than winner identity. Polymarket's bilateral winner-based resolution is standard and resolvable.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Winner-based resolution: Tigers win resolves to 'Hanshin Tigers', Swallows win resolves to 'Tokyo Yakult Swallows', cancellation/tie/no makeup resolves 50-50. Source: https://npb.jp/. This is logically consistent and standard.
  • Kalshi: Both outcomes trigger Yes resolution: 'If Tokyo Yakult Swallows wins...resolves to Yes' AND 'If Hanshin Tigers wins...resolves to Yes'. This creates a logical impossibility where every game outcome produces the same resolution value.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming NPB game, scheduled for July 10 at 5:00AM ET: If the Hanshin Tigers win, the market will resolve to "Hanshin Tigers". If the Tokyo Yakult Swallows win, the market will resolve to "Tokyo Yakult Swallows". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the final result of the game originally scheduled for July 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM EDT. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game concludes within two days. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled beyond two days, the market resolves to a fair price per official rules. In the event of a tie, the market resolves 50/50.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like these operate on direct trader sentiment and capital allocation rather than bookmaker margins, often reflecting sharper, less-padded odds than traditional sportsbooks. While sportsbooks build in juice and manage liability across balanced books, this market prices through continuous order flow from participants with real money at stake. Comparing the two can reveal where public perception diverges from professional oddsmakers, though prediction markets typically tighten closer to game time as new information emerges.

Polymarket and Kalshi operate under different market structures, fee schedules, and user bases, which naturally creates pricing spreads. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform's liquidity depth, order-book design, and participant demographics influence how quickly prices adjust to news. Arbitrage traders typically exploit these gaps, but temporary divergences persist due to withdrawal delays, platform-specific trading costs, and varying risk appetites among each venue's community.

Key catalysts include roster announcements, injury updates to star players, recent team performance trends, and head-to-head historical matchups. Weather conditions on game day, home-field advantage dynamics, and late-breaking lineup changes can all shift trader positioning. Additionally, any significant trades or managerial decisions in the days leading up to the event may trigger repricing as new information flows into both platforms.