TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$198,896,558
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,591,877
500,572
Markets across
13,691
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,797
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Hannover 96 vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Volume:
$175,754
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a Bundesliga 2 (German second division) match between Hannover 96 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth scheduled for March 8, 2026. Markets are offered on Polymarket and Kalshi, with overlapping but structurally different outcome definitions. The core question is whether the markets will resolve consistently when the match concludes after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms measure the same 90-minute-plus-stoppage-time outcome and use identical primary sources (official Bundesliga statistics), with only minor differences in cancellation edge-case handling that do not affect normal match resolution.
Primary resolution logic:
Official Bundesliga statistics and governing body records; credible reporting consensus if official statistics unavailable within 2 hours of match conclusionCore resolution logic:
- Match outcome determined after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time only (no extra time, no penalties)
- Three possible outcomes: Hannover 96 win, SpVgg Greuther Fürth win, or draw
- Polymarket offers three separate binary markets: draw (Yes/No), Fürth win (Yes/No), Hannover win (Yes/No)
- Kalshi offers a single categorical market covering all three outcomes
- If match is postponed, all markets remain open until the rescheduled match is completed
- If match is canceled with no makeup game: Polymarket draw market resolves Yes, win markets resolve No; Kalshi outcome market resolves Yes for the tie outcome
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Match Postponement: Both platforms keep markets open until the rescheduled match is completed and a final result is determined
- Match Cancellation (No Makeup): Polymarket treats cancellation as a draw (draw market Yes, win markets No). Kalshi treats cancellation as a tie outcome (market resolves Yes). Both approaches yield consistent practical outcomes for traders.
- Official Statistics Delay: If Bundesliga does not publish final statistics within 2 hours of match conclusion, both platforms fall back to consensus from credible sports reporting sources
- Scope: Extra Time and Penalties: Both platforms explicitly exclude extra time and penalty shootouts; resolution is based on 90 minutes plus stoppage time only
Timing:
Resolution occurs after the match concludes (90 minutes plus stoppage time on March 8, 2026), with official statistics expected within 2 hours; markets settle within 2-4 hours of match end if official data is available, or up to 24 hours if credible reporting consensus is requiredOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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