TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 22, 4:01 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Arthur Weber and Hayato Matsuoka in the Hangzhou Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for September 22, 2026 at 1:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Weber' if Arthur Weber advances against Hayato Matsuoka. This market will resolve to 'Hayato Matsuoka' if Hayato Matsuoka advances against Arthur Weber. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Arthur Weber and Hayato Matsuoka in the Hangzhou Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for September 22, 2026 at 1:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Weber' if Arthur Weber advances against Hayato Matsuoka. This market will resolve to 'Hayato Matsuoka' if Hayato Matsuoka advances against Arthur Weber. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which are set by professional oddsmakers. Sportsbooks may incorporate factors like public betting patterns and perceived biases, while this market relies on individuals directly expressing their beliefs about the outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information access, analytical approaches, or simply varying opinions on the relative strengths of the players. It’s common to see prediction markets react more quickly to new information than traditional sportsbooks, leading to dynamic shifts in pricing.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome of the Weber vs Matsuoka match. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a probability estimate for each possible result. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The higher the demand for shares representing a particular outcome, the higher the price, and the greater the implied probability. This dynamic pricing allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and reflect the evolving expectations of traders.
This market resolves around Sep 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Hangzhou Open, Qualification match between Arthur Weber and Hayato Matsuoka. The platform will rely on widely available and trusted sources to determine the winner of the match. Any disputes regarding the official result will be handled according to Polymarket’s standard procedures, ensuring a fair and transparent resolution process.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Sep 29, 2026. News regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or even strategic announcements from either player could all shift market sentiment. Unexpected results in other matches featuring either Arthur Weber or Hayato Matsuoka might also impact perceptions of their relative strengths. Furthermore, significant betting activity or large trades on Polymarket could create momentum and drive price movements, reflecting a change in the collective belief of market participants.