TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
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$107,351,958
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2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
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MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
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Vol.
·
Resolved Aug 4, 2026
Closed: Aug 4, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
Halo: Campaign Evolved is an upcoming video game release, and these markets track critical reception by measuring the Metascore assigned by Metacritic's aggregated review panel. Each market corresponds to a different critical threshold, allowing traders to bet on how favorably professional critics will rate the game's campaign experience.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by the Metascore for Halo: Campaign Evolved as published on Metacritic exactly seven days after the game's release, with the assessment made at 10:00 AM ET. Each market outcome corresponds to whether the Metascore exceeds a specified threshold (10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90, or 95 points). When no platform is explicitly specified, the Metascore used will be the first platform listed on the official Metacritic page for the game. The resolution value is fixed at the single point-in-time measurement and does not change based on subsequent Metacritic updates. These markets are not endorsed by Metacritic and reference to Metacritic is descriptive only, indicating no affiliation between these prediction markets and Metacritic.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they reflect real money at stake rather than point estimates. While industry analysts may publish pre-release score predictions based on gameplay footage and franchise history, this market aggregates the collective judgment of traders who profit or lose based on accuracy. Comparing the implied odds here to published analyst consensus can reveal where the crowd expects a wider or narrower critical reception than experts have publicly stated.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, this market uses a continuous order-book model where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to different Metacritic score ranges. Each outcome contract is priced between 0 and 100 cents, reflecting the probability traders assign to that range. The bid-ask spread tightens or widens based on trading activity and conviction, so more active ranges typically show tighter spreads and deeper liquidity for entering or exiting positions.
This market resolves around Aug 4, 2026, once the game's official Metacritic score is published and verified. The outcome is determined by the final aggregated critical score displayed on Metacritic's website, confirmed against credible public sources. All positions settle based on which score range the actual Metacritic total falls into, with payouts distributed accordingly to traders who held the winning outcome.
Major signals include early review embargoes lifting, critic previews and first impressions circulating, and any gameplay reveals or developer statements affecting expectations. Campaign-focused announcements, comparisons to previous Halo titles, and broader industry sentiment about the franchise can shift trader positioning. As release approaches, each new review or critical commentary typically triggers repricing, so monitoring gaming media and Metacritic's rolling score updates is key to understanding market momentum.
