TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev
kalshi
polymarket

Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev

Volume:
$173,649

Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Set Handicap +/-1.5

 - Polymarket

Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Set Handicap +/-1.5 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 16, 2026

Closed: Jun 22, 4:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Set Handicap +/-1.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$9,923
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 17.5 games

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$863
N/A
N/A
$863
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Completed Match

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Set 1 O/U 8.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$55
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Set 2 O/U 9.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Set 2 O/U 8.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$149,242
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 22.5 games

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,025
N/A
N/A
$5,027
Settled
No
kalshi

Over 27.5 games

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,205
N/A
N/A
$2,195
Settled
No
polymarket

Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Match O/U 22.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,461
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Set 1 O/U 9.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$947
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Set 1 Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$686
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Total Sets: O/U 2.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$417
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Match O/U 21.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$234
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Set 2 Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$223
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Set 1 O/U 10.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$149
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Set 2 O/U 10.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Match O/U 23.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 18

Description

This event group covers a professional tennis match between Tomas Etcheverry and Daniil Medvedev at the 2026 ATP Halle Open (Round of 32), scheduled for June 15, 2026. Markets track both the match winner and the total number of games played, with separate resolution criteria for match completion status.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Three distinct market types across platforms with different settlement values and scopes. Kalshi focuses on game-count thresholds as independent binary events; Polymarket covers match winner and completion status as separate binary outcomes. No logical contradiction, but traders must understand these are separate prediction markets.Hero tip: Do not conflate these markets. Kalshi game-count markets can resolve Yes even if the match ends in retirement (if the threshold is met before retirement). Polymarket Completion resolves No on any forfeit or retirement. Track both the final game count and match completion status separately.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Three independent binary markets on game-count thresholds (17.5, 22.5, 27.5 games). Each resolves Yes if the number of completed games in the full match exceeds the threshold. No mention of match completion status, forfeit handling, or cancellation logic. Resolution is purely quantitative based on game count.
  • Polymarket: Two separate markets: (1) Match Winner—resolves to player name or 50-50 on cancellation/walkover/delay >7 days; (2) Match Completion—resolves Yes only if all games and sets are completed under normal play, No on any forfeit, retirement, cancellation, or delay >7 days. Resolution sources: ATP Tour official statistics (primary) or credible reporting consensus (secondary, if stats not published within 2 hours).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market refers to the tennis match between Tomas Etcheverry and Daniil Medvedev in the Halle Open, originally scheduled for June 15, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tomas Etcheverry' if Tomas Etcheverry advances against Daniil Medvedev. This market will resolve to 'Daniil Medvedev' if Daniil Medvedev advances against Tomas Etcheverry. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the total number of completed games across the full match between Tomas Martin Etcheverry and Daniil Medvedev in the 2026 ATP Halle Round of 32. If the match does not occur before play begins due to injury, walkover, forfeiture, or cancellation, the market resolves to fair price. If postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled match concludes within two weeks. If a player retires, markets that can be unconditionally settled based on completed play resolve accordingly; those that cannot are settled at fair market price at the Exchange's discretion.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi operate on peer-to-peer trading mechanics, where odds reflect real-time supply and demand rather than a sportsbook's fixed margins. This market's pricing emerges from thousands of independent traders adjusting positions based on new information—injury reports, recent form, or head-to-head history. Sportsbooks, by contrast, set odds with built-in profit margins and may move lines more slowly. Prediction market odds often lead sportsbook lines because traders have direct financial incentive to price information efficiently, making them a useful benchmark for comparing consensus expectations.

On Polymarket, traders bet on the match outcome directly, while Kalshi structures its contract around total games played. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Different contract designs naturally produce different price signals: a trader bullish on Medvedev might bid higher on Polymarket's winner contract, but that same conviction could translate differently into a games-total position on Kalshi. Liquidity, user demographics, and fee structures also vary between platforms, causing temporary spreads. These gaps create arbitrage opportunities for sharp traders and reflect the reality that no two markets price identical information in identical ways.

Key catalysts include injury announcements, recent tournament results, head-to-head performance trends, and player ranking shifts. If either competitor withdraws or reports a significant injury, odds will reprice sharply. Warm-up matches or practice reports in the weeks leading up to the event can also shift trader conviction. Court surface conditions, weather forecasts, and any changes to tournament scheduling may influence positioning. Real-time match momentum during the event itself will drive final price discovery, with late-stage trading reflecting live performance as it unfolds.