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$126,590,312

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2,388,728,490

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$1,439,516,703

404,175

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MATCHED EVENTS:

2,685

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime
polymarket
kalshi

Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime

Volume:
$6,511,399

Felix Auger-Aliassime

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 17, 2026

Closed: Jun 17, 12:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Felix Auger-Aliassime

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,159,858
N/A
N/A
$1,395,367
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$686,538
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Set 1 Winner

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,445
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Total Sets: O/U 2.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$782
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Match O/U 23.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$192
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Match O/U 22.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$150
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Set 2 O/U 9.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$69
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Set 2 O/U 10.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Set 1 O/U 10.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$14
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Learner Tien

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,659,512
N/A
N/A
$1,207,775
Settled
No
polymarket

Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Set Handicap +/-1.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,162
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Set Handicap +/-1.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$362
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Set 2 Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$300
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Completed Match

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Match O/U 21.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Set 2 O/U 8.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Set 1 O/U 8.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Set 1 O/U 9.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 18

Intro

This market tracks the total number of sets in a professional tennis match between Learner Tien and Felix Auger-Aliassime at the Halle Open. The aggregated consensus across Polymarket and Kalshi shows 100.0% probability for the over 2.5 sets outcome. Resolution will be determined by official ATP Tour records at atptour.com. Watch the match scheduled for June 17, 2026 at 5:30 AM ET to see whether the contest extends beyond two sets or concludes in straight sets.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket contains internal contradiction between match-completion (Q1) and match-winner (Q4) rules on retirement/default treatment. Kalshi's "after a ball has been played" standard does not explicitly address incomplete matches or retirement scenarios, creating ambiguity versus Polymarket's detailed but contradictory framework.Hero tip: Before match day, request official clarification from both platforms on retirement scenarios. If Polymarket Q1 resolves NO but Q4 resolves YES for the same retirement event, arbitrage risk exists. Kalshi's simpler standard (ball played = valid outcome) may resolve YES even if Polymarket Q1 resolves NO, creating a platform divergence on the same underlying event.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Match completion (Q1) and match winner (Q4) contain contradictory retirement logic. Q1 states forfeits including retirement resolve NO. Q4 states if match begins and one player advances due to opponent retirement/default/disqualification, it resolves to the advancing player. This creates a logical impossibility: the same retirement event cannot simultaneously resolve Q1 to NO and Q4 to a player name. All other Polymarket markets (set winners, game counts, handicaps) depend on official ATP statistics and resolve 50-50 if match is incomplete or canceled.
  • Kalshi: Two binary markets (Q1-Q2) require only that "a ball has been played" for either player to win. No explicit handling of retirement, default, disqualification, or incomplete matches. Kalshi does not reference forfeits or walkovers, leaving resolution ambiguous if match begins but does not complete normally.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market refers to the tennis match between Learner Tien and Felix Auger-Aliassime in the Halle Open, originally scheduled for June 17, 2026 at 5:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Learner Tien' if Learner Tien advances against Felix Auger-Aliassime. This market will resolve to 'Felix Auger-Aliassime' if Felix Auger-Aliassime advances against Learner Tien. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

Resolution requires that a ball be played in the match, confirming it has officially started. If the match does not occur before play begins due to injury, walkover, forfeiture, or other cancellation, the market resolves to a fair price. Should the match be postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes only after the rescheduled match concludes, provided this occurs within two weeks of the original date.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi operate on peer-to-peer trading rather than fixed lines set by oddsmakers. This means odds adjust continuously based on trader activity and new information, often reflecting sharper consensus than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks manage liability and build margins into their lines, while prediction markets aggregate distributed opinion with minimal friction. For this match, comparing the implied probabilities here to major sportsbook spreads can reveal value opportunities, though prediction market liquidity may be lower than established betting venues.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, risk appetites, and information sets. Polymarket and Kalshi also operate under distinct regulatory frameworks and fee structures, which can influence order placement and market depth. Timing lags in price discovery, varying liquidity pools, and platform-specific incentives mean the same event may trade at different odds across venues. Arbitrage opportunities can emerge, though transaction costs and withdrawal friction often prevent perfect convergence. Monitoring both platforms helps you identify mispricings and understand where smart money is positioning.

Recent form, head-to-head records, and player injury updates are primary catalysts for price movement. Court conditions at the Halle Open, weather, and draw positioning can shift trader expectations. Pre-match commentary from analysts and betting syndicates often triggers repricing as new information surfaces. Momentum shifts during the match itself—early set outcomes, momentum swings, or visible fatigue—will drive real-time trading activity. Monitor player social media, official tournament updates, and live match feeds for signals that could reshape market odds before settlement.