TOTAL VOLUME:
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24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 8:58 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a soccer match between Haiti and Costa Rica, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. It evaluates whether the winning team achieves a specific goal differential threshold within regular time, excluding extra time or penalty shootouts. The result is determined solely by the final score after 90 minutes plus any added stoppage time.
The event resolves based on the goal differential by which either Haiti or Costa Rica wins the specified professional CONCACAF Nations League soccer match. Four distinct outcomes are evaluated: Haiti winning by more than 2.5 goals, Haiti winning by more than 1.5 goals, Costa Rica winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Costa Rica winning by more than 2.5 goals. All resolutions depend exclusively on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty phases. The event explicitly states that the platform is not affiliated with CONCACAF, and all associated trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders. If a large number of people believe one team will win, the price will move in that direction, potentially diverging from sportsbook lines. It's common to see prediction markets outperform sportsbook odds in terms of accuracy, as they aggregate diverse opinions and are continuously updated based on new information. However, sportsbook odds can still be a useful data point when evaluating this market.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand. As more people buy contracts predicting a particular outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and reflect the evolving probabilities of each outcome in the Haiti vs Costa Rica match. The current price reflects the market’s assessment of the likelihood of each team covering the spread.
This market resolves around Sep 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final result of the Haiti vs Costa Rica match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official spread determined by the governing body of the competition. The platform will verify the result against established sports data sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders holding contracts on the correct side of the spread will receive a payout, while those on the incorrect side will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Sep 28, 2026. Any news regarding team injuries, changes in coaching staff, or even weather conditions could impact trader sentiment. Unexpected results in other matches involving these teams could also shift expectations. Furthermore, significant betting activity – a large influx of buy or sell orders – can quickly move the price. Public opinion, as reflected in polls or expert analysis, might also play a role, though the market is ultimately driven by trader behavior on Kalshi.