TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above $6.2M
- Kalshi
Above $6.2M - Kalshi
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 25, 2026
Latest in Entertainment
Closed: Jun 24, 9:48 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks the hammer price of Gustave Caillebotte's Portrait de Paul Hugot at a Sotheby's live auction. On Kalshi, the leading outcome—that the lot will sell for above $4.6 million—stands at 90.0%. Resolution will be determined by the actual sale price achieved during the live auction beginning June 24, 2026, at 1:00 PM EDT, as reported by Sotheby's. Watch the auction results on June 24, 2026, to see whether this Impressionist portrait commands a price exceeding the threshold.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by the final lot sold price of Gustave Caillebotte's "Portrait de Paul Hugot" as displayed on Sotheby's website following the live auction on June 24, 2026, 01:00 PM EDT. The artwork's sale price is evaluated against nine progressive price thresholds ranging from $4.6M to $6.2M in $0.2M increments. Any price reported in non-USD currency will be converted to USD using the prevailing exchange rate at the time of verification. Each threshold operates independently: if the hammer price exceeds a given threshold, that corresponding market resolves affirmatively.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-time trader conviction and can differ meaningfully from traditional art market analyst estimates. While auction house pre-sale estimates and expert valuations rely on comparable sales and provenance research, prediction markets incorporate live information, bidder interest, and market sentiment as the event approaches. Comparing the Kalshi odds to published Sotheby's estimates or independent appraiser forecasts can reveal where the crowd sees upside or downside risk relative to official guidance on this Caillebotte portrait.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, the Portrait de Paul Hugot is priced as a binary contract: traders buy or sell shares based on whether the final sale price will exceed $6,200,000. The current market probability reflects the collective assessment of all active traders. Prices move in real time as new information emerges, such as pre-auction estimates, condition reports, or shifts in collector demand. Each share represents a fractional claim on the outcome, and the price you see represents the marginal trader's willingness to bet on the $6.2 million threshold.
The market resolves on Jun 25, 2026, following the live Sotheby's auction of the Portrait de Paul Hugot on June 24, 2026. Resolution is determined by the final hammer price achieved during the auction. The outcome hinges on whether the lot sells at or above the $6,200,000 threshold. If the painting sells above that price, one outcome resolves to yes; if it sells below or does not sell, the other outcome resolves accordingly. The official Sotheby's price record will serve as the definitive reference.
Several catalysts could shift Kalshi odds before the June 2026 auction. Publication of the official pre-sale estimate and condition report will anchor expectations. Major museum acquisitions or comparable Caillebotte sales could reset valuation benchmarks. Collector activity, institutional interest, and media coverage of the lot will influence trader sentiment. Economic conditions affecting high-net-worth buyer appetite for Impressionist works may also matter. Additionally, any conservation findings, provenance updates, or changes to auction house marketing strategy could prompt repricing as traders reassess the probability of exceeding the $6.2 million mark.
