TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 20, 12:35 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Guimaraes and Moreirense, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result is determined based on the final score after regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts. Bets are settled according to specific goal-differential thresholds for each team.
The event resolves based on the goal differential of the Guimaraes vs Moreirense professional Liga Portugal soccer match scheduled for September 20, 2026. Four distinct outcome scenarios are defined: Guimaraes winning by more than 2.5 goals, Guimaraes winning by more than 1.5 goals, Moreirense winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Moreirense winning by more than 2.5 goals. The match result is determined after 90 minutes of regular play plus any stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty kicks. Only the final score from regular time determines resolution, and all outcomes are mutually exclusive, with only one condition able to be met depending on the actual result.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their odds based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market relies on individuals’ willingness to buy or sell contracts. As a result, you may find that the implied probabilities in this market diverge from those offered by sportsbooks, particularly as new information becomes available or public sentiment shifts regarding the Guimaraes vs Moreirense match.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders can buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the spread in the Guimaraes vs Moreirense match. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of its corresponding contract will rise, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities accordingly.
This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final spread in the Guimaraes vs Moreirense match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result published by the relevant sporting authority. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct spread will receive a payout of 100 cents per contract, while those holding contracts on incorrect outcomes will receive nothing. The final price of contracts at resolution will reflect the accuracy of the market’s predictions.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Sep 20, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Guimaraes or Moreirense teams would likely have a substantial impact. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions leading up to the match could also influence trading activity. Unexpected announcements about player availability or changes in coaching staff could also shift the probabilities reflected in this market, as traders react to the new information and adjust their positions.