TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 12, 2:04 PM EST
Kalshi
Two soccer teams compete in a professional league match where a clear winner is determined within the standard playing time, including any added stoppage minutes. The outcome hinges solely on which team scores more goals during this period without the need for extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event determines the winner of a professional Serie C soccer match between Guidonia Montecelio and Reggiana, scheduled for September 12, 2026. A market resolves to Yes if the specified team wins the game within 90 minutes plus any stoppage time added by the referee, excluding extra time or penalty shootouts. If the match ends in a tie, a separate 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. Should the game be cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets resolve to a fair price based on prevailing conditions and probabilities at that time. The rules explicitly state that Kalshi is not affiliated with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance their risk and incorporate a profit margin, while this market reflects the collective predictions of informed traders. Often, prediction markets are seen as more accurate forecasters, especially when compared to initial sportsbook lines, as they aggregate diverse opinions and adjust rapidly to new information. However, sportsbook odds can still be useful for comparison, providing another data point when evaluating the potential outcome of the Italian football match.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders can buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy into a particular outcome, its price increases, and the implied probability rises. Conversely, selling pressure lowers the price and decreases the implied probability. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market constantly reflects the latest information and expectations surrounding the Italian football match.
This market resolves around Sep 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Italian football match between Guidonia Montecelio and Reggiana, as reported by a trusted sports data source. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine which outcome corresponds to the actual event outcome. Traders holding contracts on the correct outcome will be paid out according to the final market price at resolution.
Several factors could influence this market before Sep 12, 2026. Any news regarding team injuries, changes in coaching staff, or even weather conditions could shift trader sentiment and impact the odds. Unexpected announcements about player availability, or reports of internal team conflicts, are also likely to cause movement. Furthermore, significant betting activity from large traders or informed individuals could also trigger price changes in this market, as others react to their actions and adjust their own predictions regarding the Italian football match.