TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 28, 11:51 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets evaluate the margin of victory in the Guatemala versus El Salvador match, focusing on whether one team wins by a specific goal difference. The result is determined solely by the score difference after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with no consideration for extra time or penalties.
The markets resolve based on the goal differential by which either Guatemala or El Salvador wins the match. A market specifying 'Guatemala wins by more than X.5 goals' resolves to Yes if Guatemala's victory margin exceeds the stated threshold. Similarly, a market specifying 'El Salvador wins by more than X.5 goals' resolves to Yes if El Salvador's victory margin exceeds its threshold. Resolution occurs after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. Kalshi emphasizes no official connection with CONCACAF, and all associated trademarks belong to their respective owners.
Generally, prediction markets like Kalshi often reflect information and insights differing from traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd. If a significant discrepancy exists between the odds on Kalshi and those offered by sportsbooks, it could indicate differing expectations about the outcome of the Guatemala vs El Salvador match. It’s worth noting that prediction markets can sometimes be more accurate than traditional forecasts, especially when a large number of participants contribute.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different spread outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective intelligence of the crowd. Buying a contract is essentially betting that the spread will fall within the specified range, while selling a contract is betting against it. The market dynamically adjusts based on supply and demand.
This market resolves around Sep 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread of the Guatemala vs El Salvador match, as determined by official sources, will be used to determine which contracts pay out. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct spread will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect spreads will not. The resolution process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the outcome.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market before Sep 29, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Guatemala or El Salvador team would likely have a significant impact. Changes in team form, coaching strategies, or even weather conditions could also shift market sentiment. Unexpected announcements related to the match, such as venue changes or rule modifications, could also cause fluctuations. Increased media coverage or public attention could also drive trading volume and price changes in this market.