TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

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MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Guatemala vs. El Salvador
kalshi
polymarket

What is the result of Guatemala vs. El Salvador?

Volume:
$3,326,243

Guatemala

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 29, 2026

Closed: Sep 28, 11:54 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Guatemala

View
100%
53%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,119,713
N/A
N/A
$700,776
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Guatemala

View
100%
52%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$81,414
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

El Salvador

View
0%
28%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,384,079
N/A
N/A
$931,201
Settled
No
polymarket

El Salvador

View
0%
24%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$137,430
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
27%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$573,302
N/A
N/A
$371,177
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw (Guatemala vs. El Salvador)

View
0%
28%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30,306
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of a soccer match between Guatemala and El Salvador, part of the Concacaf Nations League scheduled for September 28, 2026. Currently, the consensus probability of Guatemala winning is 97.2%, as aggregated from Kalshi and Polymarket. A tie is currently estimated at 3.0%. Resolution will be based on official statistics from Concacaf, recognizing the result of the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Keep an eye on the match itself on September 28, 2026, to see if Guatemala can secure the win as currently predicted.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms consistently define resolution based on the result within 90 minutes plus stoppage time, and handle cancellations similarly.Primary resolution logic: Official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers (Concacaf).

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution is based on the result of the match within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
  • A win is determined by the team with the higher score at the end of regulation time.
  • A draw is determined if the score is tied at the end of regulation time.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Postponement: If the game is postponed, the markets will remain open until the game is completed.
  • Cancellation: If the game is canceled entirely without a make-up game, the 'Guatemala win' and 'El Salvador win' markets will resolve to 'No', and the 'Draw' market will resolve to 'Yes'.
  • Data Availability: If official statistics are unavailable within 2 hours of the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore, Sofascore, or a consensus of credible reporting will be used. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours, markets will resolve 50-50 or to 'Draw' where applicable.
Timing: Resolution will occur as soon as official results are available, or within 24 hours of the event's conclusion if fallback sources are required.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This event is for the upcoming Concacaf Nations League game, scheduled for Monday, September 28, 2026 between Guatemala and El Salvador.

Kalshi

Markets resolve based on whether Guatemala wins, El Salvador wins, or the game ends in a tie in the Guatemala vs El Salvador professional Concacaf Nations League soccer game scheduled for Sep 28, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. If the game ends in a tie, the Tie market resolves to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over 48 hours away, markets resolve to a fair price. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the probability of various outcomes for the Guatemala vs. El Salvador match. Currently, the consensus view across both platforms suggests a high probability of a draw, with Polymarket indicating a chance of 96%. Total volume across both platforms is $3,326,243, with $3,306,016 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows traders to express their beliefs about the match's result and profit from correctly anticipating the final outcome. The dashboard aggregates data from both venues to provide a comprehensive overview of market sentiment.

Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Kalshi, often differ from traditional sportsbook odds due to the wisdom of the crowd and the incentive structure. Sportsbooks set odds to maximize profit, incorporating a margin, while prediction markets allow participants to directly trade on their beliefs. This market can sometimes offer more favorable odds than sportsbooks, especially if there's disagreement or incomplete information factored into sportsbook lines. The dynamic nature of prediction markets also means odds can shift rapidly based on new information and trading activity, potentially offering an edge over static sportsbook odds.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi may differ due to variations in user base, trading volume, and market-specific rules. Polymarket currently favors a draw at 96%, while Kalshi leans toward El Salvador winning. These discrepancies can arise from differing levels of information available to traders on each platform, as well as varying risk appetites and trading strategies. Additionally, the liquidity and volume on each platform can influence price discovery, leading to temporary divergences in odds for the Guatemala vs. El Salvador match.